The intent of this book is to provide a methodology for the analysis of infectious diseases by computer-based mathematical models. The approach is based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that provide time variation of the model dependent variables and partial differential equations (PDEs) that provide time and spatial (spatiotemporal) variations of the model dependent variables.The starting point is a basic ODE SIR (Susceptible Infected Recovered) model that defines the S,I,R populations as a function of time. The ODE SIR model is then extended to PDEs that demonstrate the spatiotemporal evolution of the S,I,R populations. A unique feature of the PDE model is the use of cross diffusion between populations, a nonlinear effect that is readily accommodated numerically. A second feature is the use of radial coordinates to represent the geographical distribution of the model populations.The numerical methods for the computer implementation of ODE/PDE models for infectious diseases are illustrated with documented R routines for particular applications, including models for malaria and the Zika virus. The R routines are available from a download so that the reader can reproduce the reported solutions, then extend the applications through computer experimentation, including the addition of postulated effects and associated equations, and the implementation of alternative models of interest.The ODE/PDE methodology is open ended and facilitates the development of computer-based models which hopefully can elucidate the causes/conditions of infectious disease evolution and suggest methods of control.

The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of disease transmission models. It includes (i) an introduction to the main concepts of compartmental models including models with heterogeneous mixing of individuals and models for vector-transmitted diseases, (ii) a detailed analysis of models for important specific diseases, including tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, influenza, Ebola virus disease, malaria, dengue fever and the Zika virus, (iii) an introduction to more advanced mathematical topics, including age structure, spatial structure, and mobility, and (iv) some challenges and opportunities for the future. There are exercises of varying degrees of difficulty, and projects leading to new research directions. For the benefit of public health professionals whose contact with mathematics may not be recent, there is an appendix covering the necessary mathematical background. There are indications which sections require a strong mathematical background so that the book can be useful for both mathematical modelers and public health professionals.

Mathematical models stated as systems of partial differential equations (PDEs) are broadly used in biology, chemistry, physics and medicine (physiology). These models describe the spatial and temporial variations of the problem system dependent variables, such as temperature, chemical and biochemical concentrations and cell densities, as a function of space and time (spatiotemporal distributions). For a complete PDE model, initial conditions (ICs) specifying how the problem system starts and boundary conditions (BCs) specifying how the system is defined at its spatial boundaries, must also be included for a well-posed PDE model. In this book, PDE models are considered for which the physical boundaries move with time. For example, as a tumor grows, its boundary moves outward. In atherosclerosis, the plaque formation on the arterial wall moves inward, thereby restricting blood flow with serious consequences such as stroke and myocardial infarction (heart attack). These two examples are considered as applications of the reported moving boundary PDE (MBPDE) numerical method (algorithm). The method is programmed in a set of documented routines coded in R, a quality, open-source scientific programming system. The routines are provided as a download so that the reader/analyst/researcher can use MFPDE models without having to first study numerical methods and computer programming.

The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. It includes model building, fitting to data, local and global analysis techniques. Various types of deterministic dynamical models are considered: ordinary differential equation models, delay-differential equation models, difference equation models, age-structured PDE models and diffusion models. It includes various techniques for the computation of the basic reproduction number as well as approaches to the epidemiological interpretation of the reproduction number. MATLAB code is included to facilitate the data fitting and the simulation with age-structured models.

Infectious diseases are a worldwide problem, which require monitoring and treatment. On large spatial scales the evolution of epidemics can use mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) as a means of quantitative analysis. The book elaborates on cross diffusion PDEs implemented in a set of tested and documented R routines and is ideal for biomedical engineers, biochemists, applied mathematicians, and medical researchers.

This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in the fast growing research area of modeling the influence of information-driven human behavior on the spread and control of infectious diseases. In particular, it features the two main and inter-related “core” topics: behavioral changes in response to global threats, for example, pandemic influenza, and the pseudo-rational opposition to vaccines. In order to make realistic predictions, modelers need to go beyond classical mathematical epidemiology to take these dynamic effects into account. With contributions from experts in this field, the book fills a void in the literature. It goes beyond classical texts, yet preserves the rationale of many of them by sticking to the underlying biology without compromising on scientific rigor. Epidemiologists, theoretical biologists, biophysicists, applied mathematicians, and PhD students will benefit from this book. However, it is also written for Public Health professionals interested in understanding models, and to advanced undergraduate students, since it only requires a working knowledge of mathematical epidemiology.

Arising out of the growing interest in and applications of modern dynamical systems theory, this book explores how to derive relatively simple dynamical equations that model complex physical interactions. The author?s objectives are to use sound theory to explore algebraic techniques, develop interesting applications, and discover general modeling principles. Model Emergent Dynamics in Complex Systems unifies into one powerful and coherent approach the many varied extant methods for mathematical model reduction and approximation. Using mathematical models at various levels of resolution and complexity, the book establishes the relationships between such multiscale models and clarifying difficulties and apparent paradoxes and addresses model reduction for systems, resolves initial conditions, and illuminates control and uncertainty. The basis for the author?s methodology is the theory and the geometric picture of both coordinate transforms and invariant manifolds in dynamical systems; in particular, center and slow manifolds are heavily used. The wonderful aspect of this approach is the range of geometric interpretations of the modeling process that it produces?simple geometric pictures inspire sound methods of analysis and construction. Further, pictures drawn of state spaces also provide a route to better assess a model?s limitations and strengths. Geometry and algebra form a powerful partnership and coordinate transforms and manifolds provide a powerfully enhanced and unified view of a swathe of other complex system modeling methodologies such as averaging, homogenization, multiple scales, singular perturbations, two timing, and WKB theory.