Master probabilistic graphical models by learning through real-world problems and illustrative code examples in Python About This Book Gain in-depth knowledge of Probabilistic Graphical Models Model time-series problems using Dynamic Bayesian Networks A practical guide to help you apply PGMs to real-world problems Who This Book Is For If you are a researcher or a machine learning enthusiast, or are working in the data science field and have a basic idea of Bayesian Learning or Probabilistic Graphical Models, this book will help you to understand the details of Graphical Models and use it in your data science problems. This book will also help you select the appropriate model as well as the appropriate algorithm for your problem. What You Will Learn Get to know the basics of Probability theory and Graph Theory Work with Markov Networks Implement Bayesian Networks Exact Inference Techniques in Graphical Models such as the Variable Elimination Algorithm Understand approximate Inference Techniques in Graphical Models such as Message Passing Algorithms Sample algorithms in Graphical Models Grasp details of Naive Bayes with real-world examples Deploy PGMs using various libraries in Python Gain working details of Hidden Markov Models with real-world examples In Detail Probabilistic Graphical Models is a technique in machine learning that uses the concepts of graph theory to compactly represent and optimally predict values in our data problems. In real world problems, it's often difficult to select the appropriate graphical model as well as the appropriate inference algorithm, which can make a huge difference in computation time and accuracy. Thus, it is crucial to know the working details of these algorithms. This book starts with the basics of probability theory and graph theory, then goes on to discuss various models and inference algorithms. All the different types of models are discussed along with code examples to create and modify them, and also to run different inference algorithms on them. There is a complete chapter devoted to the most widely used networks Naive Bayes Model and Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). These models have been thoroughly discussed using real-world examples. Style and approach An easy-to-follow guide to help you understand Probabilistic Graphical Models using simple examples and numerous code examples, with an emphasis on more widely used models.

A general framework for constructing and using probabilistic models of complex systems that would enable a computer to use available information for making decisions. Most tasks require a person or an automated system to reason—to reach conclusions based on available information. The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality. Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs.

"This is a short, practical guide that allows data scientists to understand the concepts of Graphical models and enables them to try them out using small Python code snippets, without being too mathematically complicated. If you are a data scientist who knows about machine learning and want to enhance your knowledge of graphical models, such as Bayes network, in order to use them to solve real-world problems using Python libraries, this book is for you.This book is intended for those who have some Python and machine learning experience, or are exploring the machine learning field."

Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

Leverage machine learning to design and back-test automated trading strategies for real-world markets using pandas, TA-Lib, scikit-learn, LightGBM, SpaCy, Gensim, TensorFlow 2, Zipline, backtrader, Alphalens, and pyfolio. Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free eBook in the PDF format. Key FeaturesDesign, train, and evaluate machine learning algorithms that underpin automated trading strategiesCreate a research and strategy development process to apply predictive modeling to trading decisionsLeverage NLP and deep learning to extract tradeable signals from market and alternative dataBook Description The explosive growth of digital data has boosted the demand for expertise in trading strategies that use machine learning (ML). This revised and expanded second edition enables you to build and evaluate sophisticated supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning models. This book introduces end-to-end machine learning for the trading workflow, from the idea and feature engineering to model optimization, strategy design, and backtesting. It illustrates this by using examples ranging from linear models and tree-based ensembles to deep-learning techniques from cutting edge research. This edition shows how to work with market, fundamental, and alternative data, such as tick data, minute and daily bars, SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, financial news, or satellite images to generate tradeable signals. It illustrates how to engineer financial features or alpha factors that enable an ML model to predict returns from price data for US and international stocks and ETFs. It also shows how to assess the signal content of new features using Alphalens and SHAP values and includes a new appendix with over one hundred alpha factor examples. By the end, you will be proficient in translating ML model predictions into a trading strategy that operates at daily or intraday horizons, and in evaluating its performance. What you will learnLeverage market, fundamental, and alternative text and image dataResearch and evaluate alpha factors using statistics, Alphalens, and SHAP valuesImplement machine learning techniques to solve investment and trading problemsBacktest and evaluate trading strategies based on machine learning using Zipline and BacktraderOptimize portfolio risk and performance analysis using pandas, NumPy, and pyfolioCreate a pairs trading strategy based on cointegration for US equities and ETFsTrain a gradient boosting model to predict intraday returns using AlgoSeek's high-quality trades and quotes dataWho this book is for If you are a data analyst, data scientist, Python developer, investment analyst, or portfolio manager interested in getting hands-on machine learning knowledge for trading, this book is for you. This book is for you if you want to learn how to extract value from a diverse set of data sources using machine learning to design your own systematic trading strategies. Some understanding of Python and machine learning techniques is required.

This book presents cutting-edge research on innovative human systems integration and human–machine interaction, with an emphasis on artificial intelligence and automation, as well as computational modeling and simulation. It covers a wide range of applications in the areas of design, construction and operation of products, systems and services, and discusses the human factors in a wide range of settings. Gathering the proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Intelligent Human Systems Integration (IHSI 2020), held on February 19–21, 2020, in Modena, Italy, the book’s goal is to advance the theory and applications of artificial cognitive systems and improve human-artificial systems collaboration. Special emphasis is placed on automotive design, autonomous vehicles and the applications of artificial intelligence. The book offers a timely survey and source of inspiration for human factors engineers, automotive engineers, IT developers and UX designers who are working to shape the future of automated intelligent systems.

Updated and revised second edition of the bestselling guide to exploring and mastering the most important algorithms for solving complex machine learning problems Key FeaturesUpdated to include new algorithms and techniquesCode updated to Python 3.8 & TensorFlow 2.x New coverage of regression analysis, time series analysis, deep learning models, and cutting-edge applicationsBook Description Mastering Machine Learning Algorithms, Second Edition helps you harness the real power of machine learning algorithms in order to implement smarter ways of meeting today's overwhelming data needs. This newly updated and revised guide will help you master algorithms used widely in semi-supervised learning, reinforcement learning, supervised learning, and unsupervised learning domains. You will use all the modern libraries from the Python ecosystem – including NumPy and Keras – to extract features from varied complexities of data. Ranging from Bayesian models to the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to Hidden Markov models, this machine learning book teaches you how to extract features from your dataset, perform complex dimensionality reduction, and train supervised and semi-supervised models by making use of Python-based libraries such as scikit-learn. You will also discover practical applications for complex techniques such as maximum likelihood estimation, Hebbian learning, and ensemble learning, and how to use TensorFlow 2.x to train effective deep neural networks. By the end of this book, you will be ready to implement and solve end-to-end machine learning problems and use case scenarios. What you will learnUnderstand the characteristics of a machine learning algorithmImplement algorithms from supervised, semi-supervised, unsupervised, and RL domainsLearn how regression works in time-series analysis and risk predictionCreate, model, and train complex probabilistic models Cluster high-dimensional data and evaluate model accuracy Discover how artificial neural networks work – train, optimize, and validate them Work with autoencoders, Hebbian networks, and GANsWho this book is for This book is for data science professionals who want to delve into complex ML algorithms to understand how various machine learning models can be built. Knowledge of Python programming is required.