The expression: "We did not see it coming!" has often been heard in recent years from decision makers at the highest levels of responsibility in the private and public sectors. Yet there were actually early (warning) signals, but they were often ignored or not used due to a lack of appropriate methodology. To avoid such blind spots, this book provides answers to the question "how to anticipate". The concept of a "weak signal" is at the heart of the proposed methods. After presenting examples of this concept, the authors provide original and validated answers to questions of feasibility: How to recognize a weak signal? How to exploit it? Numerous applications are presented.

Master complex problems and face radical uncertainty by unleashing the power of small data Is your business using data to its optimum potential? In complicated well-structured problem situations, executives rely on Big Data. However, when faced with complexity and uncertainty they are challenged to skillfully handle Small Data. Leading by Weak Signals argues that impending dangers, new business opportunities or innovative ideas may be missed when data are classified as simply not "big enough." This insightful book with its new approach initiates a radical shift in perspective from running the business to changing the business. While Big Data are very well suited to run a business efficiently, Small Data lay open phenomena which are connected to transforming a company, like inflection points, scale changes, or critical transitions. The authors present practical business examples and an 8-step framework to implement their ideas in teams and on the individual level. This offers reflective practitioners a guideline for leveraging the enormous potential of weak signals for effective strategy development and operational execution in times of uncertainty – and gives them the competitive edge they need to succeed.

The world changes like the patterns in a kaleidoscope: trends expand, contract, break up, melt, disintegrate and disappear, while others are formed. Change – as opposed to stasis – is our normal condition, the only certainty in our lives, hence the need to create tools that provide organizations with the means to tackle change and navigate complexity. We must accept the reality of constant change and be prepared for a heavy shift in perspective: interconnection versus separation, acceleration versus linearity and discontinuity versus continuity. Anticipating the future requires more than the traditional predictive models (forecasting) based on the forward projection of past experiences. Advanced methods use anticipation logic (foresight) and build probable scenarios taking into account weak signals, emerging trends, coexisting presents and potential paths of evolution. Corporate foresight is fundamental to interpret and lead change. The two cornerstones of foresight are organization and management. As concerns organization, the authors advocate the separation of research (oriented to the market of tomorrow) from development (oriented to the market of today), the establishment of a foresight unit and the concentration of research activities mainly on the acquisition and recombination of external know-how. As regards management, after an overview of state-of-the-art literature on forecasting methods, the authors propose the implementation of a "future coverage" methodology, which enables companies to measure and verify the consistency between trends, strategic vision and offered products. These organizational and managing tools are then tested in a case study: the Italian company Eurotech SpA, a leader in the ICT sector.

Strategic Thinking for Turbulent Times is a conceptual and operational guide to the process of business strategy formulation within a turbulence driven economic and business environment. This book features pioneering work on the process of strategic thinking after the dramatic shift in the fundamental premises of strategic management.