The paper explores the macroeconomic effects of three public pension reforms, namely an increase in retirement age, a reduction in benefits and an increase in contribution rates. Using a five-region version of the IMF‘s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), we find that public pension reforms can have a positive effect on growth in both the short run, propelled by rising consumption, and in the long run, due to lower government debt crowding in higher investment. We also find that a reform action undertaken cooperatively by all regions results in larger output effects, reflecting stronger capital accumulation due to higher world savings. An increase in the retirement age reform yields the strongest impact in the short run, due to the demand effects of higher labor income and in the long run because of supply effects.

Pension reform is high on the policy agenda of many advanced and emerging market economies. In advanced economies the challenge is generally to contain future increases in public pension spending as the population ages. In emerging market economies, the challenges are often different. Where pension coverage is extensive, the issues are similar to those in advanced economies. Where pension coverage is low, the key challenge will be to expand coverage in a fiscally sustainable manner. This volume examines the outlook for public pension spending over the coming decades and the options for reform in 52 advanced and emerging market economies.

The Chilean pension reform of 1981, in which Chile moved from an unfunded to a funded scheme, is considered to have contributed to this country’s excellent economic performance since the mid-1980s. The paper highlights the theoretical underpinnings of the claimed economic effects and presents empirical data and preliminary econometric testing of the conjectured growth, capital formation, and saving effects. The empirical evidence is consistent with most of the claims. In particular, the direct impact of financial market development on private saving is found to be negative, which underscores the importance of sound fiscal policy and public saving to support the transition.

IFC Lessons of Experience No. 1F. This report reviews the experience of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) in its role as advisor and investor in privatization transactions during the past decade. In pursuit of its mandate to further economic development by encouraging the growth of productive private enterprise in developing countries, the IFC has naturally and increasingly been involved in supporting this movement. The premise of the report is that privatization will always be partly based on political considerations, including expected redistribution of wealth and the resulting winners and losers. It discusses the IFC's experience from two perspectives: as an advisor involved before the sale, which illustrates how the IFC assists in the trade-off between political and economic goals to conclude a deal; and after privatization, which discusses the resulting economic benefits. The IFC asserts that its role in privatization is defined by the evolving frontiers of political commitment. Within those frontiers, it can help expand privatization possibilities by performing advisory assignments, providing necessary investments, and developing capital market institutions. The IFC demonstrates that privatization strategies can assume many forms with few set prescriptions. Other language editions: English (ISBN 0-8213-3447-6) Stock No. 13447 Russian -out of print-(ISBN 0-8213-3545-6) Stock No. 13545 Spanish -out of print-(ISBN 0-8213-3451-4) Stock No. 13451.

Covers trends since 1954 and provides projections to 2090.

Pension reform is a key policy challenge in Russia. This paper examines how pension spending could increase in Russia in the absence of reforms, quantifies the impact of some recent proposals, and suggests some alternatives that would ensure public pension benefits - relative to wages - not fall from current levels while containing spending.

Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries "excessive"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address these questions. Price-based methodologies (based on the time series of real effective exchange rates) identify a strong link between the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, but have relatively limited explanatory power. On the other hand, an empirical model of the current account, which fits oil exporting countries' data well, and an intertemporal model that takes into account the stock of oil reserves provide useful benchmarks for oil exporters' external balances.