This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.

A number of industrial countries have adopted a framework for monetary policy that has become known as Inflation Targeting in the 1990s.2 In most cases, inflation targeting was introduced after unsuccessful attempts to target some monetary aggregate (e.g., Canada) or the nominal exchange rate (e.g., United Kingdom and Sweden). Its increasing popularity also has been nourished by a growing consensus among policy-makers, economists, and the public in general that there is no long-term trade-off between inflation and output, and that price stability fosters economic growth. For similar reasons, several emerging market economies have recently adopted, or indicated that they intend to adopt, inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework.3

This book focuses on income inequality, output-inflation trade-off and economic policy uncertainty in South Africa. Tight monetary and macroprudential policies raise income inequality. Income inequality transmits monetary policy and macroprudential policy shocks to real economic activity. Economic policy uncertainty influences the dynamics in the lending rate margins, inflation expectations, credit, pass-through of the repo rate to bank lending rates and companies’ cash holdings. The trade-off between output and inflation and output growth persistence vary with inflation regimes. Stimulatory demand policy shocks are less effective in high inflation regime. High income inequality raises consumption inequality, which raises demand for credit, but price stability matters in this link. Increased bank concentration raises income inequality, lowers economic growth and employment rate. Elevated economic policy uncertainty lowers output growth, lowers capital formation, reduces credit and raises companies’ cash holdings. Increased companies’ cash holdings reduce capital formation and impact the transmission of expansionary monetary policy shocks to real economic activity. This book shows there is an inflation level within the target band below it which lowers income inequality, while raising GDP growth and employment. Thus price stability, economic policy uncertainty and income inequality matter for the efficient transmission of policy shocks.

Recession, inflation, interest rates, income tax, exchange rates ... We are bombarded with these terms every day - by newspapers, the radio, TV and the internet - but what do they actually mean? And how do they impact on you? In this updated edition of Everyone’s Guide to the South African Economy, all these issues - and more - are addressed. The book clearly explains and evaluates a wide range of economic occurrences - from the budget and the rand/dollar exchange rate to the balance of payments and the role of the South African Reserve Bank. The book investigates the causes and consequences of the 2008/2009 global financial and economic crisis, looks at the sub-Saharan African economy, and explores human development issues in South Africa and their implications for policy-making. If you are baffled by the specialised jargon of economists and bankers and want to know more about the economic forces that subtly dictate your day-to-day existence, Everyone’s Guide to the South African Economy will put you in the picture. This is essential reading for every South African consumer and taxpayer. Economics, after all, is too important to be left to economists.

This paper investigates the impact of the money supply in different states of inflation and economic growth in South Africa from 1990 to 2021. The term “states” defines periods of low and high rates of economic variables of interest. Markov-switching dynamic regression (MSDRM) and time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) are used in this paper. The contribution of this paper is not only based on the long run but also on the examination of the impact of the money supply in different states of inflation and economic growth. Moreover, the use of shock accounts for time-varying elasticity. It is found that there is a 0.70% decrease in the gross domestic product for a 1% increase in money supply in state 1, while in state 2, the money supply was insignificant. The money supply had a negative and a positive impact on inflation in states 1 and 2, with rates of 0.05% and 0.35% in the respective states. The money supply had a high multiplier effect on gross domestic product and inflation. More than 5 years were spent in each state for both gross domestic product and inflation, while the transition probability of moving and returning to each state is significant. The trade-off of using the money supply for economic growth and inflation is evident in South Africa. It is recommended that the state of the economy be considered when using the money supply in an effort to stimulate economic growth or stabilise inflation.

'Investment in South Africa is low, real interest rates are high, the employment-intensity of growth has been relatively slow. The "employment-targeted program" advocated in this book seeks to reverse these tendencies by lowering average interest rates and channeling subsidized credit to labor-intensive, pro-poor activities, particularly small-scale agriculture and small and medium-sized enterprises. This is a bold program and by challenging conventional "inflation-targeted" economic policy, the book makes a major contribution to the debate on economic policy in South Africa.' - Keith B. Griffin, University of California-Riverside, US The people of South Africa, and the African National Congress-led government, have made extraordinary social and economic advances since ending apartheid and beginning the transition to democracy in 1994. But the country still faces severe problems of mass unemployment, underemployment and poverty. This study, sponsored by the United Nations Development Program, presents a detailed economic program designed to produce major reductions in unemployment and poverty, and a general spreading of economic well-being, and to achieve these ends in a manner that is sustainable over a longer-term framework.