La 4e de couverture indique: "Les modèles du futur. Changement climatique et scénarios économiques : enjeux scientifiques et politiques. Le tournant des années 1960-1970 voit l'ouverture d'un débat, lancé par le rapport du Club de Rome, sur la croissance et le caractère limité des ressources de la planète. Ce rapport est à l'origine d'un courant intellectuel important, appuyé sur un fort investissement en modélisation mathématique, visant à questionner ce que l'on appelle aujourd'hui la « durabilité » du développement. Vers la fin des années 1980, la question du réchauffement climatique global fait irruption sur les scènes scientifique, géopolitique et médiatique. L'alerte sur l'effet de serre va mobiliser les acquis de modélisation de la période précédente et susciter une nouvelle génération d'outils scientifiques : modèles intégrés, scénarios du futur. Une instance intergouvernementale d'expertise scientifique est créée. Après la convention de Rio en 1992, un processus de gouvernance globale du régime climatique se met en place qui aboutit notamment au protocole de Kyoto. L'hybridation est croissante entre dynamiques scientifiques et politiques. Cet ouvrage présente les divers aspects de ce dossier, tant scientifiques et épistémologiques, qu'économiques et politiques. Il revient sur les outils de la modélisation prospective, et leur utilisation dans l'arène politique comme dans le débat public. Il analyse la mise en place du régime climatique depuis 1988 et porte une attention privilégiée aux liens entre expertise scientifique et gouvernance globale."

Le tournant des années 1960-1970 voit l'ouverture d'un débat, lancé par le rapport du Club de Rome, sur la croissance et le caractère limité des ressources de la planète. Ce rapport est à l'origine d'un courant intellectuel important, appuyé sur un fort investissement en modélisation mathématique, visant à questionner ce que l'on appelle aujourd'hui la « durabilité » du développement. Vers la fin des années 1980, la question du réchauffement climatique global fait irruption sur les scènes scientifique, géopolitique et médiatique. Une instance intergouvernementale d'expertise scientifique est créée. Après la convention de Rio en 1992, un processus de gouvernance globale du régime climatique se met en place qui aboutit notamment au protocole de Kyoto. L'hybridation est croissante entre dynamiques scientifiques et politiques. L'alerte sur l'effet de serre va mobiliser les acquis de modélisation de la période précédente et susciter une nouvelle génération d'outils scientifiques : modèles intégrés, scénarios du futur. Cet ouvrage présente les divers aspects de ce dossier, tant scientifiques et épistémologiques, qu'économiques et politiques. Il revient sur les outils de la modélisation prospective, et leur utilisation tant politique que pour la délibération publique. Il analyse la mise en place du régime climatique depuis 1988 et porte une attention privilégiée aux liens entre expertise scientifique et gouvernance globale. Pages de début Introduction I. Le débat sur la croissance des années 1970 et ses outils 1. Croissance ou stabilité ? 2. La construction historique des paradigmes de modélisation intégrée : William Nordhaus, Alan Manne et l'apport de la Cowles Commission Les économistes face au long terme : l'ascension de la notion de scénario II. L'alerte climatique, la gouvernance mondiale du régime climatique 4. Les modèles numériques de climat 5. Le régime climatique, entre science, expertise et politique 6. Les modèles dans les débats de politique climatique : entre le Capitole et la Roche tarpéienne ? III. Fabrication des futurs : batailles de représentation et délibération publique 7. Les émissions optimales de CO2 le sont-elles vraiment ? 8. Modèles mondiaux et représentation des pays en développement 9. Pour une morale de la modélisation économique des enjeux climatiques en contexte d'expertise 10. Les couloirs de la persuasion. Usages de la communication, tissu associatif etlobbies du changement climatique Pages de fin.

It is evident that many organisations are in need of renovation, innovation and reinvigoration. Longstanding business paradigms and underpinning practices require critical reflection in the light of fundamental societal and business developments. Some companies are addressing these challenges, many companies are not. New functional requirements often seem to be in conflict, such as transparency, stock market performance, sustainability, innovation, responsibility, time to market, stakeholders, business rationalisation and many others. These requirements force business to revise its management model. The time is right to demonstrate how the business enterprise can be re-conceptualised, and what the challenges are of fundamental strategic choices in organising a sustainable business proposition. This book presents ten cases of organisations which have developed a management model that leads the organisation into the future.

"Strategic Mental Models: Shaping the Future of Business in Complexity" In an era characterized by rapid change, unprecedented complexity, and global interconnectedness, businesses face challenges that demand more than just traditional management techniques. The ability to navigate through this multifaceted landscape requires a new kind of leadership—one that understands the power of mental models in shaping not only decisions but also the very fabric of organizational strategy and culture. "Strategic Mental Models: Shaping the Future of Business in Complexity" is a groundbreaking text that offers this insight, providing executives, managers, and leaders with the tools they need to thrive in today's dynamic business environment. This book is not just a theoretical exploration; it is a practical guide that translates complex concepts into actionable strategies. It dives deep into the role of mental models—those cognitive frameworks that influence how we perceive the world, make decisions, and solve problems. By understanding and leveraging these models, leaders can drive their organizations toward innovation, resilience, and sustained success. Key Advantages of the Book A Comprehensive Framework for Modern Leadership: "Strategic Mental Models" provides a holistic approach to understanding how mental models impact every facet of business, from decision-making to organizational culture. It equips leaders with the knowledge to recognize, evaluate, and refine these models to align with the ever-evolving demands of the marketplace. Practical Application in Organizational Management: The book is rich with real-world examples, case studies, and strategic insights that demonstrate the application of mental models in various industries. It guides leaders in applying these concepts to their specific organizational contexts, ensuring that the strategies discussed are not only relevant but also immediately implementable. Enhancing Organizational Resilience and Adaptability: In a world where change is the only constant, the ability to adapt quickly and effectively is crucial. This book shows how to cultivate mental models that foster organizational resilience, enabling companies to not only survive but also thrive amidst uncertainty and disruption. Driving Innovation through Mental Flexibility: Innovation is at the heart of business growth, and this book highlights how flexible mental models can spur creativity and out-of-the-box thinking. It encourages leaders to break free from outdated paradigms and to develop new ways of thinking that drive innovation and competitive advantage. Fostering Collaborative and Inclusive Cultures: Understanding the diversity of mental models within teams is key to building cohesive, collaborative, and inclusive organizational cultures. This text provides strategies for aligning these diverse models, ensuring that every team member's unique perspective contributes to the organization's overall success. A Forward-Looking Approach: The book doesn't just address current challenges but also looks ahead to future trends and disruptions. It prepares leaders to anticipate and shape the future of their businesses, positioning them to stay ahead of the curve in an increasingly complex world. Contribution to Organizational Management "Strategic Mental Models" is more than a book; it is a roadmap for leading in complexity. It empowers leaders to: Reframe Problems: By understanding how mental models shape perception, leaders can approach challenges from new angles, leading to more effective solutions. Enhance Decision-Making: The book provides tools to refine mental models, leading to more informed, strategic, and timely decisions. Cultivate a Learning Organization: It promotes a culture of continuous learning and mental agility, essential for adapting to change and driving ongoing improvement. Align Strategy with Execution: By aligning mental models across the organization, leaders can ensure that strategy is effectively translated into action, enhancing overall performance. In a business landscape where complexity reigns, "Strategic Mental Models: Shaping the Future of Business in Complexity" is an indispensable resource for leaders who are committed to not just navigating but mastering the complexities of modern business. This book offers the strategic foresight, practical tools, and innovative thinking required to lead with confidence into the future. It is an essential read for anyone looking to elevate their leadership and ensure their organization's long-term success in an increasingly complex world.

This book challenges the traditional models of modern economy, business education and management, which are devoted to the concepts of scarcity, competition, growth and yield. It deconstructs the spiral of acceleration in which technological shifts concerning global markets and enterprises produce a dynamic of unbridled disruption, concentration and erosion of human and natural resources. The book analyzes how, in the face of this dynamic, once successful business models increasingly lead to existential jeopardy.The book embeds its argument in the impact of technological change on strategy in general. It subsequently analyzes the degree of rationality in the strategy building process to juxtapose revenue and responsibility as the fundamental principles of diverging strategic concepts. In its central chapters the book explores the benefits of consciousness-driven business models and value-added strategies for the awareness markets of the future and their impact on team excellence and resource handling. It develops an understanding of how corporations can function as ecosystems – fostering the growth and development of the resources they operate on, rather than being based on their exploitation. Understanding this structure of viable future business models is the overall theme of this pioneering book. “This book endeavors to set out yet another paradigm for a viable economics, the paradigm of ethicology. It seeks to replace the concepts of competition, scarcity and growth with strategies and business models based on resource creation, added values cycles, enrichment and symbiosis in line with the awareness economy it describes.” Hunter Lovins,President and Founder of Natural Capitalism Solutions “... a very basic paradigm shift in our future strategies ...” Henner Klein, Chairman Emeritus A.T. Kearney “The book stands right on the tectonic fault line between our old and our new reality. It manages to do both: analyze the shifting paradigms and provoke new thinking.” Dr. Martin R. Stuchtey, Director of the McKinsey Center for Business & Environment “This book is raising the bar. His vision dares to rethink the principles of the liberal and social market economy in a globalized business world.” Prof. Dr. René Schmidpeter, CBS Köln “A book worth reading and reflecting on. Onwards to an economy that works for 100% of humanity.” Michael Pirson,Associate Professor, Director Center for Humanistic Management, Fordham University and Research Fellow, Harvard University „ ... powerful arguments and practical guidance on how companies can become sustainable and live up to the realities of global enterprise ...” Michael Hilti, Hilti AG

Knowledge is Power in Four Dimensions: Models to Forecast Future Paradigms, Forecasting Energy for Tomorrow's World with Mathematical Modeling and Python Programming Driven Artificial Intelligence delivers knowledge on key infrastructure topics in both AI technology and energy. Sections lay the groundwork for tomorrow's computing functionality, starting with how to build a Business Resilience System (BRS), data warehousing, data management, and fuzzy logic. Subsequent chapters dive into the impact of energy on economic development and the environment and mathematical modeling, including energy forecasting and engineering statistics. Energy examples are included for application and learning opportunities. A final section deliver the most advanced content on artificial intelligence with the integration of machine learning and deep learning as a tool to forecast and make energy predictions. The reference covers many introductory programming tools, such as Python, Scikit, TensorFlow and Kera. - Helps users gain fundamental knowledge in technology infrastructure, including AI, machine learning and fuzzy logic - Compartmentalizes data knowledge into near-term and long-term forecasting models, with examples involving both renewable and non-renewable energy outcomes - Advances climate resiliency and helps readers build a business resiliency system for assets

Providing a reliable and resilient supply of electric power to communities across the United States has always posed a complex challenge. Utilities must support daily operations to serve a diverse array of customers across a heterogeneous landscape while simultaneously investing in infrastructure to meet future needs, all while juggling an enormous array of competing priorities influenced by costs, capabilities, environmental and social impacts, regulatory requirements, and consumer preferences. A rapid pace of change in technologies, policies and priorities, and consumer needs and behaviors has further compounded this challenge in recent years. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on February 3, 2020 to explore strategies for incorporating new technologies, planning and operating strategies, business models, and architectures in the U.S. electric power system. Speakers and participants from industry, government, and academia discussed available models for long-term transmission and distribution planning, as well as the broader context of how these models are used and future opportunities and needs. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.