Pursuant to KSA 75-6701, the Legislative Research Department and Division of the Budget have adjusted the most recent estimates of State General Fund (SGF) receipts for FY 2008 and FY 2009. These adjustments reflect the fiscal impact of legislation involving receipts to the SGF enacted during the 2008 Legislative Session subsequent to the Consensus Revenue Estimate made on April 16, 2008. The attached tables show changes by source and incorporate those changes into the overall estimates for FY 2008 and FY 2009. FY 2008 receipts were decreased by $0.259 million relative to the April estimate, attributable to changes in transfers enacted in the omnibus bill. FY 2009 receipts were decreased by $28.278 million, with much of the difference again attributable to changes in net transfers.

The Consensus Estimating Group met today to revise the estimates for FY 2008 and to make its first SGF estimates for FY 2009. A far more detailed memo will be available soon which contains the economic forecast for Kansas upon which the forecasts are based, as well as a discussion of other factors influencing the individual source estimates. For FY 2008, the estimate was increased by $160.5 million, or 2.9 percent, above the previous estimate (made in April and subsequently adjusted for legislation enacted during the veto and sine die sessions). ... The initial estimate for FY 2009 is $6.170 billion, which is $452.8 million, or 7.9 percent, above the newly revised FY 2008 figure.

Estimates for revenues to the State General Fund (SGF) are developed using a consensus process that involves the Legislative Research Department, Division of the Budget, Department of Revenue, and three consulting economists from state universities. This estimate is the base from which the Governor and the Legislature build the annual budget. The Consensus Group met on April 16, 2008, and decreased the overall estimate for both fiscal years by a combined $129.9 million relative to the previous estimate made in November. The revised FY 2008 estimate is $5.737 billion, and the revised FY 2009 estimate is $6.021 billion. The revised estimates incorporate the fiscal impact of all 2008 legislation previously signed into law by April 16 or expected to be signed into law shortly thereafter and include significant adjustments relative to the impact of the new federal economic stimulus legislation; a major downward revision in projected SGF interest earnings; and increased transfers.

The Consensus Estimating Group met today to revise the estimates for FY 2009 and to make its first SGF estimates for FY 2010. ... For FY 2009, the estimate was decreased by $211.4 million, or 3.5 percent, below the previous estimate (made in April and subsequently adjusted for legislation enacted during the veto session). The revised estimate of $5.781 billion represents 1.5 percent growth above final FY 2008 receipts. ... The initial estimate for FY 2010 is $5.782 billion, which is virtually unchanged from the FY 2009 estimate.

Revenue and expenditure forecasting plays an important role in public budgeting and financial management, particularly during times of financial constraint, when citizens impose greater accountability upon government to use taxpayer dollars more efficiently. Despite its significance, revenue and expenditure forecasting is often overlooked in the budget process, and there is an imbalance between practice and research in this area. Based on the collaboration of budget scholars and practitioners, Government Budget Forecasting fulfills two purposes: Enhances the understanding of revenue and expenditure estimation both theoretically and practically Stimulates dialogue and debate among practitioners and academicians to identify good forecast practices as well as areas for improvement Divided into four parts, this comprehensive reference first examines forecast practices at the federal, state, and local levels, drawing on case studies that include California, Texas, and Louisiana. It then explores consensus systems and risk assessment, considering political factors and the costs of forecast errors. The text concludes with a call to transparency and guidance from a code of ethics, and a look at forecasting practices in emerging countries.