After a first foresight study on ‘World food security in 2050’ (Agrimonde), CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a new foresight exercise on ‘Land use and food security in 2050’ (Agrimonde-Terra). This new study seeks to highlight levers that could modify ongoing land-use patterns for improved food and nutrition security. Agrimonde-Terra proposes a trend analysis on the global context, climate change, food diets, urban-rural linkages, farm structures, cropping and livestock systems, and explores five scenarios. Three scenarios entitled ‘Metropolization’, ‘Regionalization’ and ‘Households’ are based on current competing trends identified in most world regions. Two scenarios entitled ‘Healthy’ and ‘Communities’ involve potential breaks that could change the entire land use and food security system. The ‘Healthy’ scenario is the only one that makes it possible to achieve sustainable world food and nutrition security in 2050. Nevertheless, current trends in agricultural and food systems in most parts of the world converge towards the ‘Metropolization’ scenario, which is not sustainable in terms of both land use and human health. Therefore, changing the course of ongoing trends in favor of sustainable land uses and healthy food systems will be one of the main challenges of the next decades. It will require systemic transformation, strong and coherent public policies across sectors and scales, and consistent actions from a wide range of actors. This foresight provides a large information base on land uses, food systems and food security and constitutes a tool box to stimulate debates, imagine new policies and innovations. It aims to empower decision makers, stakeholders, non-governmental organizations and researchers to develop a constructive dialogue on the futures of land uses and food security at either world, regional and national levels.

After a first foresight study on World food security in 2050' (Agrimonde), CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a new foresight exercise on Land use and food security in 2050' (Agrimonde-Terra). This new study seeks to highlight levers that could modify ongoing land-use patterns for improved food and nutrition security.

After a first foresight study on 'World food security in 2050' (Agrimonde), CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a new foresight exercise on 'Land use and food security in 2050' (Agrimonde-Terra). This new study seeks to highlight levers that could modify ongoing land-use patterns for improved food and nutrition security.Agrimonde-Terra proposes a trend analysis on the global context, climate change, food diets, urban-rural linkages, farm structures, cropping and livestock systems, and explores five scenarios. Three scenarios entitled 'Metropolization', 'Regionalization' and 'Households' are based on current competing trends identified in most world regions. Two scenarios entitled 'Healthy' and 'Communities' involve potential breaks that could change the entire land use and food security system. The 'Healthy' scenario is the only one that makes it possible to achieve sustainable world food and nutrition security in 2050. Nevertheless, current trends in agricultural and food systems in most parts of the world converge towards the 'Metropolization' scenario, which is not sustainable in terms of both land use and human health. Therefore, changing the course of ongoing trends in favor of sustainable land uses and healthy food systems will be one of the main challenges of the next decades. It will require systemic transformation, strong and coherent public policies across sectors and scales, and consistent actions from a wide range of actors.This foresight provides a large information base on land uses, food systems and food security and constitutes a tool box to stimulate debates, imagine new policies and innovations. It aims to empower decision makers, stakeholders, non-governmental organizations and researchers to develop a constructive dialogue on the futures of land uses and food security at either world, regional and national levels.

How will the world be able to feed close to 9 billion people in 2050 and still maintain the ecosystems? In this perspective, INRA and CIRAD launched the initiative, in 2006, to develop a foresight project for analysing issues pertaining to the world's food and agricultural systems on the 2050 timeline. This book provides a synthetic presentation of the main conclusions that this foresight project has yielded. First, it recapitulates the main statistical references for the period 1961 to 2003, before going on to describe the Agribiom simulation tool used to calculate food biomass resource use balances. Two scenarios on the 2050 timeline are then considered: Agrimonde GO is a trend-based scenario that bets on economic growth to feed the world, in a context where environmental protection is not a priority; in contrast, the idea in Agrimonde 1 is to feed the world while preserving its ecosystems.

The way food systems have evolved over past decades means that they now face major risks, which in turn threaten the future of food systems themselves. Food systems have seriously contributed to climate change, environmental destruction, overexploitation of natural resources and pollution of air, water and soils. Despite the global average improvement in calorie production and major development of the food and agricultural product markets, huge inequalities in food access and repartition of the added value have emerged, leading to new serious nutritional and social problems. Based on a review of the most recent scientific knowledge, this report emphasizes Low-Income and Lower Middle-Income countries where the population faces greater challenges than elsewhere. Different threats are adding up and there are few options to adapt or mitigate these combinations of risks. This is a call for all those - businesses, policy makers, consumers, funding agencies - who are engaged in food systems transformations to bear in mind their systemic aspects and their multiple outcomes and risks in order to be able to fashion more sustainable and equitable food systems. This report was prepared and coordinated by the Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), and is a joint production with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the European Commission’s Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development (DG DEVCO). The scientific report hereunder takes stock of the current and future risks and challenges as regards to food systems.

This volume analyzes the global challenges of food security, land use changes, and climate change impacts on food production in order to recommend sustainable development policies, anticipate future food services and demands, and identify the economic benefits and trade-offs of meeting food security demands and achieving climate change mitigation objectives. The key points of analysis that form the conclusions of this book are based on measuring the quantity and quality of land and water resources, and the rate of use of sustainable management of these resources in the context of socio-economic factors, including food security, poverty, and climate change impacts. In six parts, readers will learn about these crucial dimensions of the affects of climate change on food security, and will gain a better understanding of how to assess the trade-offs when combating multiple climate change challenges and how to develop sustainable solutions to these problems. The book presents multidimensional perspectives from expert contributors, offering holistic and strategic approaches to link knowledge on climate change and food security with action in the form of policy recommendations, with a focus on sociological and socio-economic components of climate change impacts. The intended audience of the book includes students and researchers engaged in climate change and food security issues, NGOs, and policy makers.

Several aspects of the perspectives for global agriculture are analysed and FAO's projections for the years to come are given. Macroeconomic indicators are explained and how these underpin the poverty levels in the 2050 horizon. Other areas explored are natural resources, notably land and water, as well as capital, investment and technology.