Sint Maarten’s economy has been hit hard over the last 4 years. In 2017, two major hurricanes struck the island causing significant damage. While reconstruction was largely financed by insurance proceeds and grants from The Netherlands, economic recovery from the hurricane damage was slow and in early 2020 the coronavirus pandemic shut down most of Sint Maarten’s tourism sector. As a result, fiscal revenue declined by 15 percent since 2016; payroll tax revenue declined by only 4.5 percent, whereas the turnover tax revenue declined by 23 percent. Since April 2020, The Netherlands has provided immediate financial support to cushion the economic shock of the pandemic. In December 2020, Sint Maarten concluded an agreement with The Netherlands to receive more substantial financial support for recovery and ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability. In return, the authorities committed to make structural changes to their tax system, making it more growth-friendly and equitable, while optimizing and ensuring its revenue mobilization capacity.

Over the last decade, Aruba has faced three recessions resulting in a public debt of approximately 90 percent of GDP. Its current budget deficit needs to be reduced and Aruba should close a fiscal gap of 1.5-2 percent of GDP over the next two to three years to return to a sustainable path. Earlier this year, the authorities have introduced a crisis package, mainly by increasing the turnover taxes. This temporary tax measure should be replaced by a tax reform that will modernize and simplify the current system. The new tax system should not only raise more revenue, but also shift the tax burden away from income and profits toward consumption. The current system is not well equipped to make these changes. In replacing the crisis levy, the Government sees an opportunity to streamline the current tax system, modernize it, and make it more sustainable for the future needs of Aruba.

Curaçao and Sint Maarten experienced a vigorous post-pandemic recovery. Growth was underpinned by strong stayover tourism, which is outperforming Caribbean peers. Headline inflation has declined rapidly, notwithstanding a recent uptick, led by international oil price developments, while core inflation remains elevated. In both countries, current account deficits improved markedly from pandemic years but remain high. Fiscal positions remained strong and in compliance of the fiscal rule. Both countries strive to adopt sound macroeconomic policies, broadly in line with past IMF advice (Annex I). The landspakket, the structural reform package agreed with the Netherlands in 2020, continues to guide both countries’ reform agenda.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation focuses on Curaçao and Sint Maarten’s near and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before coronavirus disease 2019 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity and financial markets. The fiscal position in Curaçao improved in the past two years, in part due to implemented fiscal measures. Both Curaçao and Sint Maarten would benefit from introducing a Fiscal Responsibility Framework. It could incorporate a central government debt ratio as a long-term anchor and operational rules calibrated to meet it. The report suggests that risks in the financial sector need to be addressed as a matter of priority. The authorities should develop a strategy for addressing financial sector vulnerabilities with the objective of preserving financial stability while minimizing fiscal costs. Significant strengthening of supervision and a complete overhaul of the bank resolution framework are also urgently needed. An across-the board improvement in the governance framework should be a key priority in both countries. Vulnerabilities in the financial system point to the need to strengthen governance in the financial sector.

The COVID-19 pandemic inflicted another major shock on the economies of Curaçao and Sint Maarten, which followed category 5 hurricanes in Sint Maarten in 2017 and the spillovers of the Venezuelan crisis on Curaçao. Despite the substantial response measures financed by The Netherlands, the economic contraction in 2020 was severe.

This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.