The COVID-19 pandemic inflicted another major shock on the economies of Curaçao and Sint Maarten, which followed category 5 hurricanes in Sint Maarten in 2017 and the spillovers of the Venezuelan crisis on Curaçao. Despite the substantial response measures financed by The Netherlands, the economic contraction in 2020 was severe.

Curaçao and Sint Maarten experienced a vigorous post-pandemic recovery. Growth was underpinned by strong stayover tourism, which is outperforming Caribbean peers. Headline inflation has declined rapidly, notwithstanding a recent uptick, led by international oil price developments, while core inflation remains elevated. In both countries, current account deficits improved markedly from pandemic years but remain high. Fiscal positions remained strong and in compliance of the fiscal rule. Both countries strive to adopt sound macroeconomic policies, broadly in line with past IMF advice (Annex I). The landspakket, the structural reform package agreed with the Netherlands in 2020, continues to guide both countries’ reform agenda.

The economies of Curaçao and Sint Maarten are recovering from the pandemic but facing multiple challenges, including spillovers from the war in Ukraine. Curaçao was in a protracted recession even before the pandemic due to spillovers from the Venezuelan crisis. Sint Maarten needs to fully recover not only from the pandemic, but also from the devastating 2017 hurricanes.

Curaçao and Sint Maarten, which form a monetary union (Union), are recovering from the pandemic and earlier shocks. Substantial tourism recoveries in both economies supported robust growth and strong fiscal adjustments. Curaçao’s GDP is still below its pre-pandemic level while Sint Maarten is expected to exceed it this year. Both countries are working on structural reform packages, although the focus is still mainly on studies and preparation.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation focuses on Curaçao and Sint Maarten’s near and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before coronavirus disease 2019 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity and financial markets. The fiscal position in Curaçao improved in the past two years, in part due to implemented fiscal measures. Both Curaçao and Sint Maarten would benefit from introducing a Fiscal Responsibility Framework. It could incorporate a central government debt ratio as a long-term anchor and operational rules calibrated to meet it. The report suggests that risks in the financial sector need to be addressed as a matter of priority. The authorities should develop a strategy for addressing financial sector vulnerabilities with the objective of preserving financial stability while minimizing fiscal costs. Significant strengthening of supervision and a complete overhaul of the bank resolution framework are also urgently needed. An across-the board improvement in the governance framework should be a key priority in both countries. Vulnerabilities in the financial system point to the need to strengthen governance in the financial sector.