Kenya’s medium-term economic outlook remains positive, supported by the authorities’ continued firm commitment to their economic program amidst a complex environment. Economic recovery is well underway, but Kenya’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have suffered significant setbacks, and poverty has increased. The authorities see the program as providing essential support for sound fiscal management ahead of the 2022 elections, reinforcing their multi-year fiscal consolidation plan to reduce debt vulnerabilities and preserve priority social and development spending.

Kenya has enjoyed strong growth in recent years and external imbalances have narrowed, strengthening resilience to shocks. The business environment continues to improve, supporting private investment. However, a severe drought, an extended presidential election, and weak bank lending—due in part to interest rate controls—slowed growth in 2017. With better weather and a stable political environment, growth should improve in 2018. But public debt has risen as revenue shortfalls have not been matched by spending cuts.

This paper presents the staff report for Kenya’s 2009 Article IV Consultation on economic development and policies. The progress Kenya achieved on the growth and poverty reduction fronts stalled in 2008 owing to a series of adverse developments, including the global economic crisis. The political situation is generally stable, but there appears to be constraining consensus on key issues. The spillover effect of the global financial crisis slowed export growth, tourism receipts, remittances, and private capital inflows.