Japan imports large amounts of beef, primarily from Oceania and North America, and its consumers are willing to pay a premium for heavily marbled, grain-fed beef. Trade bans resulting from the discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in North America shifted beef supplies to imported beef from Australia and New Zealand. Beef consumption in Japan may increase from current levels in Japan¿s market, particularly if prices fall or income rises. Economic factors, demographic factors, import and domestic policies and regulations, as well as consumer tastes and preferences, will determine the outlook for beef consumption in Japan and the ability of U.S. beef to compete in that market. Charts and tables.

Extract: Japanese grain yields, areas, production, food demand, feed demand, trade, and government pricing policies are modeled on the basis of data mostly from 1965-79. Grains are classified into rice, wheat, corn, and other coarse grains, with the last often subdivided into barley and other grain. The model is then simulated through 1992, using as exogenous variables projections of Japanese population, Japanese real income, and U.S. grain prices (as proxies for world trade prices). The model's equations are designed for making 5- to 20- year projections, but alternative equations more suited to short-run policy analysis are also presented.