The study showed that El Niño no longer strikes the same fear as it used to, even in the agricultural sector where the negative impacts of the 1997-98 and 1982-83 events are within living memory. The widespread drought associated with the El Niño event of 2015/16 (subsequent to this study) may, however, reverse this trend and promote greater interest in the role of ENSOs in seasonal forecasts. There is little demand for El Niño-specific forecasts outside of agricultural research. However there is evidence for the use of seasonal forecasts in the agriculture, water and disaster preparedness and response sectors in South Africa.

Recent food shortages in Southern Africa, induced by rainfall variability but compounded by problems of governance and rising food prices, have resulted in massive relief efforts. A recent scientific innovation - supplying farmers with seasonal climate forecasts - has been touted as a way to increase preparedness for such situations.

Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.

Small farmers tilling handkerchief sized farms feed more than half the world. They thus maintain national stability, forestall conflict and reduce emigration. Secure food supply is nothing short of national security. Such facts define the poor world, yet are misunderstood by nations that influence international development. Practitioners know that small farmers’ yields can exceed those of large farms. They also know that food security means guaranteeing enough food to survive as a national priority unrelated to free trade. Good governments of poor countries practice this to avoid food shortages and anarchy. Food always comes first – that is the message of this powerful book. History is replete with failed societies that lost sight of the centrality of food and farmers. Today, wealthy country delusions of isolation from instability in the rest of the world open everyone to an unprecedented risk. These matters are, in this book, refocused on the essentials of life, global security and peace. Polemic in parts, it shows the situation as it is. The opening paragraph says it. This is a simple book. It argues for the return of two critical values in international development. The first is the securing of food for a minimal level of existence. The second, acknowledgement of the vital role of small farmers. Dilution of these values means that aid may now be increasing risks of starvation and conflict. Some arguments presented here will be counter-intuitive to conventional thinkers, and so information supports forgotten axioms. The book also notes the responsible actions of the world’s major food producers, China and India, both of which are criticized for abandoning unsuitable agendas of development agencies.

Does receiving information on potential adverse weather conditions induce adaptive responses by smallholders? Do market institutions ease constraints to adaptation of these practices? This report examines these questions using a unique panel dataset of Zambian smallholder households collected before and after 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. The analysis finds that farmers receiving drought-related seasonal forecasts are more likely to integrate drought tolerant crops into their cropping systems and to acquire improved maize seed varieties. These farmers, on average, are found to apply double the quantity of improved maize seeds than farmers residing in the same zones but not receiving weather information. Larger and more competitive private output markets function as enablers of smallholder adaptive responses to seasonal forecast information, as farmers with improved market access are more likely to shift toward drought resilient technologies than farmers with low output market access. Three policy recommendations emerge from the findings. First, while seasonal forecast information can induce adaptive responses by farmers, there is the need of improving access to this information, particularly for households in remote areas or limited asset ownership. Second, targeting voucher-based farmer input support programs based on seasonal forecast information can enable the crowding in of private investments in these regions and increase the adaptive responses of farmers, particularly resource constrained farmers. Finally, this analysis suggests that policies that incentivize private investment in agricultural markets should be considered within the broader framework of smallholder climate adaptation and resilience in Zambia. This includes strategies to improve agricultural trade predictability