A Theory of International Trade Under Uncertainty analyzes international trade in goods and securities in the presence of uncertainty using an integrated general equilibrium framework that recognizes the dependence of markets for goods on financial markets and vice versa. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated by means of applications to questions such as the effects of international trade on resource allocation, tariff policy, and intervention in financial capital markets. Results which are important for theoretical as well as policy oriented applications are presented. Comprised of 11 chapters, this volume begins with an introduction to some of the fundamental elements of the deterministic Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin theories of international trade. Relevant elements from the theory of decision making under uncertainty are then discussed, along with the behavior of firms and consumers-investors in an economy with stock markets. Subsequent chapters focus on problems of commercial policy; gains from trade in goods and securities; and issues of intervention in financial capital markets. The book concludes by describing a dynamic model of international trade that contains an infinite horizon and takes into account the trade-off between present period consumption and savings. An example that illustrates an equilibrium structure of the dynamic model is presented. This monograph is intended for economists who are interested in international trade or international finance, including graduate students who specialize in these fields.

This book considers the impact of uncertainty on traditional theories of international trade.

This book considers the impact of uncertainty on traditional theories of international trade.

How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.