Literaturangaben

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

Includes bibliographical references.

Includes statistics.

This text fulfills a major gap by comprehensively reviewing one of the most salient policy issues in Europe today, migration and immigration. It is the first book to address the question of whether we can legitimately speak of a European politics of migration that links states in terms of their policy response to each other and to an evolving EU policy. The book carefully differentiates between different types of migration, introduces the main concepts and debates, and provides a broad comparative framework from which to assess the role and impact of individual states and the European Union (EU) and European integration to this key contemporary issue. Topical and up-to-date, the author fully reviews the politics and policies of immigration across the breadth and depth of Europe including the `older' immigration countries of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, the `newer' southern European countries, and the enlargement states of East and Central Europe. The Politics of Immigration and Migration in Europe is essential reading for all undergraduate and post-graduate students of European politics, political science and the social sciences more generally. Andrew Geddes lectures at the School of Politics and Communications Studies, University of Liverpool. `This book will be essential reading for students of migration and European integration, but will also be important for decision-makers, and, indeed, anyone who wants to understand one of the burning issues of our times' - Stephen Castles, Professor of Migration and Refugee Studies, Director of the Refugee Studies Centre, University of Oxford

Discusses macro-economic determinants of international migration in Europe