The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.

The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.

Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?

This publication gathers the papers presented at the “OECD-EU dialogue on mobility and international migration: matching economic migration with labour market needs” (Brussels, 24-25 February 2014), a conference jointly organised by the European Commission and the OECD.

Looking to the year 2030, this volume explores the social, economic and environmental forces which, in OECD countries, may combine to attract migrants of various types and backgrounds, and which, primarily in the developing world, may persuade people to leave or stay at home.

The dynamics of migration in Europe have changed dramatically over the last few decades. Some countries, such as Ireland, Italy and Spain, are newcomers to an increasingly diverse Europe, having moved from being sources of emigration to destinations for migrants. Others such as France, Germany and the UK have many more years of experience with immigrants. Some of the biggest challenges facing Europe in the context of migration relate to irregular migration and integration by immigrants and refugees. What are the immigration needs of the different European countries? What are their labour needs? Can Europe’s existing population satisfy those labour needs? How can European countries work together to protect and improve the current refugee and asylum system? In the light of these pressing issues, it is vital that academics and NGOs work together to promote debate, research and the publication of reliable information about migration and refugees. To this end, academics, policy-makers and representatives of NGOs met at the University of Deusto in Bilbao, Spain (30 January-1 February 2003) to reflect on and debate the state of immigration in Europe. The results are published in this book.

The themes of migration and economic development are traditionally related. The debate over these issues has recently gained great relevance, particularly in Europe, as the phenomenon of migration tends to be seen as a possible conse quence (and cause) of political and environmental unrest. In this case, the im pacts of migration have not only to do with development but also with welfare, social norms and political stability. In recent months, the issues of xenophobia, of openness to refugees, of a rea sonable attitude towards international migration have come to the fore as a key to the future shape of Europe. The discussion is unfortunately couched in ex treme and irrational terms: social scientists may bear part of the responsibility for this, because for a very long time they devoted only minimal attention to the phenomenon of international migration, and we are still lacking a coherent view which will integrate international development with the freedom of movement of capital and labour and the preservation of the environment. Given the growing attention on the issue, the Conference organised by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei on 3-4 June 1991 at the Centro Studi Americani in Roma was extremely timely. In the light of 'new' migration phenomena, such as the migration wave into Germany from the East or into Italy from Albania, the Conference represented a unique opportunity to think of new policy measures to tackle migration.