This technical report describes the F-15 programmed depot maintenance (PDM) process as performed at the Warner Robins Air Logistics Center (WR-ALC) in FYs 2004-2006. The average WR-ALC F-15 PDM visit runs behind schedule and lasts about four months. Also, PDM can wait a long time for parts; aircraft move through PDM steps out of sequence, with missing parts catching up with the aircraft when they become available, or cannibalize other aircraft.

This technical report describes the F-15 programmed depot maintenance (PDM) process as it was performed at the Warner Robins Air Logistics Center (WR-ALC) in the FY 2004 through FY 2006 time frame. The F-15 is an all-weather, extremely maneuverable tactical fighter designed to permit the Air Force to gain and maintain superiority in aerial combat. F-15s are on a 6-year PDM cycle (i.e., they are to return for PDM within 6 years of completion of a visit). WR-ALC has a sequential process that F-15s follow when undergoing PDM. Fuselage and wing work are, however, performed in parallel. The mean WR-ALC F-15 PDM visit completed in FY 2006 lasted 119.8 days. This total was down from 130.3 days in FY 2005 but similar to FY 2003 (123.1 days) and FY 2004 (117.5 days) mean durations. In FYs 2002 and 2003, the vast majority of WR-ALC F-15s completed PDM behind schedule. This problem was reduced in recent years, largely because planned durations became more realistic (i.e., longer). In FY 2006, the median F-15 was picked up 8 days after WR-ALC completed work. Pickup lags for F-15s based overseas are expected, because they are typically flown overseas in pairs to make more efficient use of aerial tanker refueling. However, even for continental United States (CONUS) based aircraft, it was not uncommon for operators to wait a week or more to retrieve their completed F-15s. There is considerable variation in how much time aircraft spend at specific steps or cells in the F-15 PDM process. WR-ALC is concerned about part issues. The PDM line does not have a particularly high priority, so it can wait considerable periods for parts. One symptom of and adaptation to part problems is "traveling work" (i.e., having an aircraft move forward through WR-ALC's cellular flow without all the tasks prescribed in a cell being completed). When the missing part is obtained, the part catches up with the aircraft and is installed. Another symptom of and adaptation to part problems is cannibalization.

Part of a larger RAND Project Air Force study on capability-based programming, this report introduces a revealed preference methodology to estimate the value to the United States Air Force of expediting F-15 fighter jet programmed depot maintenance (PDM). Such a valuation estimate would be useful in depot-level cost-benefit analysis. The authors rely on the fact that the Air Force has chosen to pay for intermittent PDM on F-15s to assert that F-15s must have enough value after PDM visits to justify PDM costs. Air Force expenditure data suggest that a typical fiscal year 2005 PDM visit cost about $3.2 million. Using the aircraft valuation curves consistent with PDM being worthwhile, the authors find that expediting an F-15's last PDM visit by a month must be worth at least $60,000. However, using a plausible annual aircraft valuation decline rate, they find that expediting an old F-15's last PDM visit by a month would be worth around $75,000, while expediting a new F-15's first PDM visit by a month would be worth more than $180,000. This report also explores various robustness enhancements. Consideration of aging aircraft issues, for instance, tends to increase the estimated value of expedited PDM.

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Many of the aircraft that form the backbone of the U.S. Air Force operational fleet are 25 years old or older. A few of these will be replaced with new aircraft, but many are expected to remain in service an additional 25 years or more. This book provides a strategy to address the technical needs and priorities associated with the Air Force's aging airframe structures. It includes a detailed summary of the structural status of the aging force, identification of key technical issues, recommendations for near-term engineering and management actions, and prioritized near-term and long-term research recommendations.