This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.

"This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles."--Provided by publisher.

This paper analyzes the effects of monetary policy and fiscal adjustment on output and unemployment in Turkey. The model on which the analysis is based accounts for rural-urban migration, a large urban informal sector, flexible exchange rates, a dollarized banking system, and interactions between default risk on government liabilities, credibility, and inflation expectations. The short- and long-run effects of a rise in official interest rates and tax increases are analyzed. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the link between default risk and credibility in understanding the real and financial effects of macroeconomic adjustment.

Persistently high inflation rates have led many to believe that inflation in Turkey has become "inertial," posing an obstacle to disinflation. We assess the empirical validity of this argument. We find that the current degree of inflation persistence in Turkey is lower than in Brazil and Uruguay prior to their successful stabilization programs. More significantly, expectations of future inflation are more important than past inflation in shaping the inflation process, providing little evidence of "backward-looking" behavior. Using survey data, we find that inflation expectations, in turn, depend largely on the evolution of fiscal variables.

Persistent high inflation rate is one of the basic problems of Turkish economy until recent years. For solving the high inflation problem, several disinflation programs were put into force under the auspices of International Monetary Fund in 1980, 1994, 1999 and 2001. But, implementation of the disinflation policies was temporary and unstable under the political instabilities. From 1974 to 2002, political instabilities mainly influenced economic policies and implementation of the stabilization programs in Turkey. In this paper, we aimed to show the implementation of disinflation policy is difficult in political instability periods. We will investigate the cost of disinflation policies under the political instability and test by LSTAR-VAR (LSTVAR) analysis the cost of disinflation policies in the context of stabilization programs in Turkey between 1974 and 2002.

This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.