China's process of modernizing its armed forces has involved the development of indigenously designed weapons systems-some of which appeared to undergo a process of development, procurement, and/or deployment that outpaced the estimates of U.S. and other foreign observers. This paper specifically focuses on four key weapons platforms that have been discussed as "surprise" developments to U.S. analysts: Type 039A/B/041 (Yuan-class) diesel-electric attack submarine, SC-19 anti-satellite (ASAT) system, Dongfeng-21D (DF-21D/CSS-5) anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), Jian-20 (J-20) stealth fighter aircraft. This report examines each of these purported "surprise" military developments in detail, and seeks to provide a clearer picture as to whether or not U.S. officials and analysts have demonstrated a pattern of underestimating the speed and depth of Chinese military development.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.Contents: Indigenous Weapons Development in China's Military Modernization * Executive Summary * Section 1: The Yuan Class Submarine * Section 2: The Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Missile System * Section 3: The Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) * Section 4: The J-20 Fighter * ConclusionsThe History and Development of Yuan-Class Submarines - Prior to designing and implementing domestic submarines, China imported a majority of its submarine technology from Russia. The first indigenous diesel submarine, the Ming-class, was first launched in 1971; it was based on the Soviet Romeo-class submarine. The second domestically designed submarine, the Song-class, was first launched in 1994. China also bought Russian-designed Kilo-class submarines throughout the 1990s and 2000s. The Yuan-class submarines (Figure 1) share characteristics of both Russian Kilo-class and Chinese indigenous submarines (e.g., Song-class) and "are armed similarly to the Song-class SS."

China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the DF-21D, has reached the equivalent of Initial Operational Capability. Although it probably has been deployed in small numbers, additional challenges and tests remain. This study examines the ASBM’s capability and history, showing how the DF-21D meets multiple priorities in Chinese defense modernization and in the national security bureaucracy, as well its implications for the United States. The ASBM’s physical threat to U.S. Navy ships will be determined by the development of associated systems and organizations, which currently limit data fusion and coordination in the complex task of identifying a U.S. aircraft carrier in the open ocean. Still, the ASBM poses a direct threat to the foundations of U.S. power project in Asia and will undermine the U.S. position, unless efforts to counter its political-military effects are taken.

It is my pleasure to introduce this 2013 publication by the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the U.S. Army War College, the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), and the United States Pacific Command, focusing on A Retrospective of the People's Liberation Army in the Hu Jintao Era (2002-12). The papers in this book provide a valuable and insightful review of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) many impressive advances over the past decade. Solid scholarship on changes taking place in the PLA helps us understand how the Chinese view the employment of military power to support broader policy aims. A historical review of patterns and developments in training, operations, acquisitions, and political military relations can greatly assist that understanding. The outstanding work in this jointly sponsored study is an important contribution toward this end. This volume provides unique insights into the PLA's achievements over the span of Hu Jintao's tenure...

China’s military development has become a key focus of US security policy as well as that of virtually all Asia-Pacific states. This report from the CSIS Burke Chair in Strategy examines trends in Chinese strategy, military spending, and military forces based on Chinese defense white papers and other official Chinese sources; US reporting by the Department of Defense and other defense agencies; and other government sources, including Japanese and Korean defense white papers and the International Monetary Fund. The analysis also draws on the work of experts outside of government, various research centers, and nongovernmental organizations.

This book presents the first comprehensive analysis of the debate over how the United States and its allies can counter China's rapidly growing military power.

This is a new release of the original 1960 edition.