Japan is in the midst of a demographic transition that is both rapid and large by international standards. As recently as 1990, Japan had the youngest population among the Group of 6 large, developed countries. However, the aging of the baby boomer generation and low fertility rates have produced very rapid aging. Japan now has the oldest population among the Group of 6, and its population will continue to age at a rapid pace. Aging is already placing a burden on government finances, and Japan's ability to confront the negative fiscal implications of future aging is constrained by its very high debt-to-GDP ratio. The authors find that Japan faces a severe fiscal crisis if remedial action is not undertaken soon, and they analyze alternative strategies for correcting Japan's fiscal imbalances. Figures. This is a print on demand report.

This book examines claims that aging populations will create serious economic problems for various nations. It examines the question in large part through the eyes of researchers and legislators in three target countries: Australia, Japan, and the United States. These countries were chosen because of similar states of economic development and because all were experiencing a rapid aging of their populations. A comprehensive overview is provided of the economic issues related to aging populations. Several aspects are explored in more depth. To date, it is the most complete and thorough study of economic issues associated with population aging. After a brief review of the phenomenon of demographic aging, the authors give a summary of the major economic programs offered to the aged. Extensive research is used to evaluate the concept of dependency ratios and to predict the impact on younger and older persons of future economic and demographic growth. This discussion then provides the basis for a review of evolving retirement policies in the three countries. Special attention is given to the way pension plans have been designed, especially early and mandatory retirement policies. An assessment of the adequacy of retirement income follows. The final three chapters are devoted to policy options for the future, given trends in demographic aging. Social scientists and economists will be most interested in this study.

This cutting edge collection examines Japan’s population issue, exploring how declining demographic trends are affecting Japan’s social structure, specifically in the context of Greater Tokyo, life infrastructure, public finance and the economy. Considering the failures of past Japanese policies from the perspective of population, national land, and politics, it argues that the inability of past administrations to develop a long-term and comprehensive policy has exacerbated the population crisis. This text identifies key negative chain reactions that have stemmed from this policy failure, notably the effect of population decline on future economic growth and public finances and the impact of shrinking municipalities on social and community infrastructure to support quality of life. It also highlights how population decline can precipitate inter-generational conflict, and impact on the strength of the state and more widely on Japan’s international status. Japan is on the forefront of the population problem, which is expected to affect many of the world’s advanced industrial economies in the 21st century. Based on the study of policy failures, this book makes recommendations for effective population policy – covering both ‘mitigation’ measures to encourage a recovery in the depopulation process as well as ‘adaptation’ measures to maintain and improve living standards – and provides key insights into dealing with the debilitating effects of population decline.

Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging synthesizes the economic literature on aging and the subjects associated with it, including social insurance and healthcare costs, both of which are of interest to policymakers and academics. These volumes, the first of a new subseries in the Handbooks in Economics, describe and analyze scholarship created since the inception of serious attention began in the late 1970s, including information from general economics journals, from various field journals in economics, especially, but not exclusively, those covering labor markets and human resource issues, from interdisciplinary social science and life science journals, and from papers by economists published in journals associated with gerontology, history, sociology, political science, and demography, amongst others. Dissolves the barriers between policymakers and scholars by presenting comprehensive portraits of social and theoretical issues Synthesizes valuable data on the topic from a variety of journals dating back to the late 1970s in a convenient, comprehensive resource Presents diverse perspectives on subjects that can be closely associated with national and regional concerns Offers comprehensive, critical reviews and expositions of the essential aspects of the economics of population aging

This paper quantifies the costs of a permanent increase in debt to GDP. We employ a deterministic, overlapping generations model with two assets and no risk of default. The two assets are public debt and private (productive) capital. We assume that the return on private capital equals the interest rate on public debt plus an exogenously given spread. Employing a analytical version of the model we show an example in which a permanent rise in the public debt ratio leads to a significant reduction in steady-state GDP even as r

Japan faces the problem of how to finance retirement, health, and long-term care expenditures as the population ages. This paper analyzes the impact of policy options intended to address this problem by employing a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations model, specifically parameterized to match both the macroeconomic and microeconomic level data of Japan. We find that financing the costs of aging through gradual increases in the consumption tax rate delivers a better macroeconomic performance and higher welfare for most individuals than other financing options, including those of raising social security contributions, debt financing, and a uniform increase in health and long-term care copayments.

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