The housing markets have played an important role in macroeconomic fluctuations, especially during the recent financial crisis. Residential investment is a form of real estate investment that constitutes one of the world most valuable assets due to its durability. Housing investment is an important component of household wealth. There are a lot of factors that affect the demand and supply of housing investment. We investigate the correlation between housing dynamics and the business cycle for a variety of countries. Our empirical results exhibit the two daunting facts of the housing market, especially in the United States.

House price bubbles, and their aftermath, have become a focus of macro-economic policy concern in most developed countries. This book elucidates the two-way relationship between house-price fluctuations and economic fundamentals. Housing has many features which make it distinct from other assets, like equity. Real estate is not only an asset but also a durable consumption good for households, providing shelter and other housing services. As a result, a house is often the largest and most important asset of households and therefore accounts for a major share of household wealth. Similarly a large share of bank assets is tied to housing values. House price fluctuations may, therefore, have a major effect on economic activity and the soundness of the financial system. Following an introductory chapter, the book is structured into three parts. The first demonstrates the importance of house prices as determinants or indicators of inflation and economic activity. The second focuses on the inter-relationships between bank credit extension and housing prices, and how bubbles can lead to financial crises. The third discusses resultant public policy issues, such as whether, and how, to include housing prices in a general inflation index, and how to restrain the housing/bank credit cycle.

The stirrings of reform or more of the same? U.S. Housing Policy, Politics, and Economics shares a stark and urgent message. With a new president in the White House and the economy emerging from its peak pandemic lows, the time is right for transformative federal housing legislation—but only if Congress can transcend partisan divides. Drawing on nearly a century of legislative and policy data, this briefing for scholars and professionals quantifies the effects of Democratic or Republican control of the executive and legislative branches on housing prices and policies nationwide. It exposes the lasting consequences of Congress’ more than a decade of failure to pass meaningful housing laws and makes clear just how narrow the current window for action is. Equal parts analysis and call to arms, U.S. Housing Policy, Politics, and Economics is essential reading for everyone who cares about affordable, accessible housing.

We test whether foreign demand matters for local house prices in the US using an identification strategy based on the existence of “home bias abroad” in international real estate markets. Following an extreme political crisis event abroad, a proxy for a strong and exogenous shift in foreign demand, we show that house prices rise disproportionately more in neighbourhoods with a high concentration of population originating from the crisis country. This effect is strong, persistent, and robust to the exclusion of major cities. We also show that areas that were already expensive in the late 1990s have experienced the strongest foreign demand shocks and the biggest drop in affordability between 2000 and 2017. Our findings suggest a non-trivial causal effect of foreign demand shocks on local house prices over the last 20 years, especially in neighbourhoods that were already rather unaffordable for the median household.

Between 1996 and 2006 the U.S. has experienced an unprecedented boom in house prices. As it has proven to be difficult to explain the large price increase by observable fundamentals, many observers have emphasized the role of speculation, i.e. expectations about future price developments. The argument is, however, often indirect: speculation is treated as a deviation from a benchmark. The present paper aims to identify house price expectation shocks directly. To that purpose, we estimate a VAR model for the U.S. and use sign restrictions to identify house price expectation, housing supply, housing demand, and mortgage rate shocks. House price expectation shocks are the most important driver of the boom and account for about 30 percent of the real house price increase. We also construct a model-based measure of exogenous changes in price expectations and show that this measure leads a survey-based measure of changes in house price expectations. Our main identification scheme leaves open whether expectation shifts are realistic or unrealistic. In extensions, we provide evidence that price expectation shifts during the boom were primarily unrealistic and were only marginally affected by realistic expectations about future fundamentals.

For many younger and lower-income people, housing affordability continues to worsen. Based on the academic research of two distinguished housing economists – and stimulated by working with governments across the world - this wide-ranging book sets out clear theoretical and empirical frameworks to tackle one of today’s most important socio-economic issues. Housing unaffordability arises from complex forces and a prerequisite to effective policy is understanding the causes of rising house prices and rents and the interactions between housing, housing finance and the macroeconomy. The authors challenge many of the conventional wisdoms in housing policy and offer innovative recommendations to improve affordability.