The past decade has seen a lively debate on the methodology of econometrics: econometricians can now estimate almost any model they choose to specify, but many have expressed doubts about the practical usefulness and scientific validity of such models. In this volume, prominent historians of econometrics work with methodologists and practicing econometricians to illuminate current controversies and explain the origins of the present situation.

Written from the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission econometric perspective, this book provides an account of the advances in the field of econometrics since the 1970s.

This book illustrates how economists first learnt to harness statistical methods to measure and test the 'laws' of economics.

The discovery of higher statistics in economic research; The emergence of structural estimation; The historical context of sctructural estimation; Promises and problems of structural estimation; Contemporary alternatives to simulaneous equations estimation; Exogeneity; Vector autoregressions.

This comparative historical study of econometrics focuses on the development of econometric methods and their application to macroeconomics.The analysis covers the origins of modern econometrics in the USA and Europe during the 1920's and 30's, the rise of `structural estimation' in the 1940's and 50's as the dominant research paradigm, and the crisis of the large macroeconomic models in the 1970's and 80's.The completely original feature of this work is the use of previously unknown manuscript material from the archives of the Cowles Commission and other collections. The history so constructed shows that recent debates over methodology are incomplete without understanding the many deep criticisms that were first raised by the earliest researchers in the field.