Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning and European Inflation Dynamics
Title | Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning and European Inflation Dynamics PDF eBook |
Author | Anke Weber |
Publisher | |
Pages | 45 |
Release | 2007 |
Genre | |
ISBN | 9783865583130 |
This paper is the first attempt to investigate the performance of different learning rules in fitting survey data of household and expert inflation expectations in five core European economies (France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain). Overall it is found that constant gain learning performs well in out-of-sample forecasting. It is also shown that households in high inflation countries are using higher best fitting constant gain parameters than those in low inflation countries. They are hence able to pick up structural changes faster. Professional forecasters update their information sets more frequently than households. Furthermore, household expectations in the Euro Area have not converged to the inflation goal of the ECB, which is to keep inflation belowto but close to 2% in the medium run. This contrasts the findings for professional experts, which seem to be more inclined to incorporate the implications of monetary union for the convergence in inflation rates into their expectations.
Inflation Expectations
Title | Inflation Expectations PDF eBook |
Author | Peter J. N. Sinclair |
Publisher | Routledge |
Pages | 402 |
Release | 2009-12-16 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 1135179778 |
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
European Inflation Dynamics
Title | European Inflation Dynamics PDF eBook |
Author | Jordi Galí |
Publisher | |
Pages | 54 |
Release | 2001 |
Genre | Economics |
ISBN |
We provide evidence on the fit of the New Phillips Curve (NPQ for the Euro area over the period 1970-1998, and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of European inflation dynamics with those observed in the U.S. We also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs, as well as that of its two main components, namely, labor productivity and real wages. Some of the findings can be summarized as follows: (a) the NPC fits Euro area data very well, possibly better than U.S. data, (b) the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial, but in line with survey evidence and U.S. estimates, (c) inflation dynamics in the Euro area appear to have a stronger forward- looking component (i.e., less inertia) than in the U.S., (d) labor market frictions, as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup, appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and, consequently, inflation in Europe.
The Role of Expectations in Euro Area Inflation Dynamics
Title | The Role of Expectations in Euro Area Inflation Dynamics PDF eBook |
Author | Maritta Paloviita |
Publisher | |
Pages | 100 |
Release | 2005 |
Genre | Inflation (Finance) |
ISBN |
Tiivistelmä.
Inflation Dynamics Inthe Euro Area and the Role of Expectations
Title | Inflation Dynamics Inthe Euro Area and the Role of Expectations PDF eBook |
Author | Maritta Paloviita |
Publisher | |
Pages | 24 |
Release | 2004 |
Genre | Inflation (Finance) |
ISBN | 9789524621601 |
Tiivistelmä: Euroalueen inflaatiodynamiikka ja odotusten merkitys : lisätuloksia.
European Inflation Expectations Dynamics
Title | European Inflation Expectations Dynamics PDF eBook |
Author | Jörg Döpke |
Publisher | |
Pages | 46 |
Release | 2005 |
Genre | |
ISBN | 9783865580931 |
The Formation of European Inflation Expectations
Title | The Formation of European Inflation Expectations PDF eBook |
Author | Carin A. B. van der Cruijsen |
Publisher | |
Pages | 36 |
Release | 2015 |
Genre | |
ISBN |