Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty

Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty
Title Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty PDF eBook
Author Mr.Carlo Cottarelli
Publisher International Monetary Fund
Pages 26
Release 1991-12-01
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 1451854862

Download Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

We investigate the conditions for sustainability of debt roll-over schemes under uncertainty. In contrast with the requirements identified in recent research, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for sustainability of such schemes is that the asymptotic interest rate on government debt be lower than the asymptotic growth rate of the economy, a natural extension of a familiar criterion in a deterministic framework. However, we also show that for realistic parameter values, Ponzi games that are sustainable in the long run may display explosive patterns over relatively long horizons. This may explain why governments may be reluctant to play Ponzi games even when they are feasible in the long run.

Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty

Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty
Title Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty PDF eBook
Author Mr.Leonardo Bartolini
Publisher International Monetary Fund
Pages 52
Release 1991-12
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN

Download Government Ponzi Games and Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

We investigate the conditions for sustainability of debt roll-over schemes under uncertainty. In contrast with the requirements identified in recent research, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for sustainability of such schemes is that the asymptotic interest rate on government debt be lower than the asymptotic growth rate of the economy, a natural extension of a familiar criterion in a deterministic framework. However, we also show that for realistic parameter values, Ponzi games that are sustainable in the long run may display explosive patterns over relatively long horizons. This may explain why governments may be reluctant to play Ponzi games even when they are feasible in the long run.

A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates

A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates
Title A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates PDF eBook
Author Julio Escolano
Publisher INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Pages 94
Release 2010-01-27
Genre
ISBN 9781462396955

Download A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper presents a practical guide to public debt dynamics, fiscal sustainability, and cyclical adjustment of budgetary aggregates. The paper discusses fiscal formulas, which may be of practical use in fiscal analysis. The paper derives, respectively, the formulas for debt dynamics, and cyclical and inflation adjustment of budgetary aggregates. It discusses other relationships for special applications, and some practical implications and usage. The formulas related to debt dynamics are based on the assumption that changes in liabilities are the result of above-the-line budgetary operations.

Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice

Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice
Title Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice PDF eBook
Author Craig Burnside
Publisher World Bank Publications
Pages 312
Release 2005
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 9780821358740

Download Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Topics discussed in this publication include: an introduction to theoretical and practical aspects of fiscal sustainability; theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis; debt indicators in the measurement of vulnerability; cyclical adjustment of budget surplus; pro-cyclical fiscal policy using Mexico's fiscal accounts as a case study; fiscal rules and the experience of Chile; currency crises and models for deal with financing costs.

IMF Staff papers, Volume 39 No. 1

IMF Staff papers, Volume 39 No. 1
Title IMF Staff papers, Volume 39 No. 1 PDF eBook
Author International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher International Monetary Fund
Pages 220
Release 1992-01-01
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 1451956940

Download IMF Staff papers, Volume 39 No. 1 Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

This paper focuses on exchange rate economics. Two main views of exchange rate determination have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flexible-price, sticky-price, and real interest differential formulations); and the portfolio balance approach. In this paper, the literature on these views is surveyed, followed by a discussion of the empirical evidence and likely future developments in the area of exchange rate determination. The literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, exchange rates and “news,” and international parity conditions is also reviewed.

Sovereign Debt

Sovereign Debt
Title Sovereign Debt PDF eBook
Author S. Ali Abbas
Publisher Oxford University Press
Pages 288
Release 2019-10-21
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 0192591398

Download Sovereign Debt Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.

Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia

Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia
Title Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia PDF eBook
Author Benno Ferrarini
Publisher Routledge
Pages 227
Release 2012
Genre Business & Economics
ISBN 0415522218

Download Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia Book in PDF, Epub and Kindle

Addressing the global financial crisis has required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent buildup of public debt, in particular its sustainability, has moved to center stage in the policy debate. If the Asia and Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth, its public debt must be sustainable. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia addresses this issue for Asia and the Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons for increased attention to debt-related issues. It also introduces fiscal indicators for the Asian Development. Bank’s developing member countries and economies. The sustainability of their debt is assessed through extant approaches and with the most up-to-date data sources. The book also surveys the existing literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to it, and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. Also highlighted is the importance of conducting individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g., federal), and the like, as well as the impact of debt on interest rates. The book further provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses for the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia offers a comprehensive analytical and empirical update on the sustainability of public debt in the region. It breaks new ground in examining characteristics that are crucial to understanding sustainability and offers richer policy analysis that should prove useful for policymakers, researchers, and graduate students.