Debris flows, which occur in mountain settings worldwide, have been particularly damaging in the glaciated basins flanking the stratovolcanoes in the Cascade Range of the northwestern United States. This thesis contains two manuscripts that respectively investigate the (1) initiation processes of debris flows in these glaciated catchments, and (2) debris flow occurrence and its effect on valley bottoms over the last thousand years. In a 2006 storm, seven debris flows initiated from proglacial gullies of separate basins on the flanks of Mount Rainier. Gully heads at glacier termini and distributed collapse of gully walls imply that clear water was transformed to debris flow through progressive addition of sediment along gully lengths. In the first study, we analyze gully changes, reconstruct runoff conditions, and assess spatial distributions of debris flows to infer the processes and conditions necessary for debris flow initiation in glaciated catchments. Gully measurements suggest that sediment bulking requires steep gradients, abundant unstable material, and sufficient gully length. Reconstruction of runoff generated during the storm suggests that glaciers are important for generating the runoff necessary for debris flow initiation, particularly because infiltration capacities on glacial till covered surfaces well exceed measured rainfall rates. Runoff generation from glaciers and abundant loose debris at their termini explain why all debris flows in the storm initiated from proglacial areas. Proglacial areas that produced debris flows have steeper drainage networks with significantly higher elevations and lower drainage areas, suggesting that debris flows are associated with high elevation glaciers with relatively steep proglacial areas. This correlation reflects positive slope-elevation trends for the Mount Rainier volcano. An indirect effect of glacier change is thus the change in the distribution of ice-free slopes, which influence a basin's debris flow potential. These findings have implications for projections of debris flow activity in basins experiencing glacier change. The second study uses a variety of dating techniques to reconstruct a chronology of debris flows in the Kautz Creek valley on the southwest flank of Mount Rainier (Washington). Dendrochronologic dating of growth disturbances combined with lichenometric techniques constrained five debris flow ages from 1712 to 1915 AD. We also estimated ages of three debris flows ranging in age from ca. 970 to 1661. Run-out distances served as a proxy for debris flow magnitude, and indicate that at least 11, 2, and 1 debris flow(s) have traveled at least 1, 3, and 5 km from the valley head, respectively since ca. 1650. Valley form reflects the frequency-magnitude relationship indicated by the chronology. In the upper, relatively steep valley, discrete debris flow snouts and secondary channels are abundant, suggesting a process of debris flow conveyance, channel plugging, and channel avulsion. The lower valley is characterized by relatively smooth surfaces, an absence of bouldery debris flow snouts, few secondary channels, and relatively old surface ages inferred from the presence of tephra layers. We infer that the lower valley is deposited on by relatively infrequent, large magnitude, low-yield strength debris flows like an event in 1947, which deposited wide, tabular lobes of debris outside of the main channel. Debris flows during the Little Ice Age (LIA) predominantly traveled no further than the upper valley. Stratigraphic evidence suggests that the main Kautz Creek channel was filled during the LIA, enhancing debris flow deposition on the valley surface and perhaps reducing run-out lengths. Diminished areas and gradients in front of glaciers during the LIA also likely contributed to decreased run-out lengths. These findings suggest that changes in debris flow source and depositional zones resulting from temperature and glacier cycles influence the magnitude and run-out distances of debris flows, and the dynamics of deposition in valley bottoms.

Debris flow initiation is controlled by a complex interaction of geology, geomorphology, climate, and weather. In the Cascade Range of Pacific Northwest and mountainous areas globally, patterns of temperature and precipitation are being altered by climate change, which may in turn impact debris flow initiation. Temperature has increased and patterns of precipitation have changed, potentially impacting the timing, geography, and triggering mechanisms of debris flows. Glacier retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age has exposed volumes of unstable sediment on steep slopes prone to debris flow initiation. Earlier spring snowmelt extends the snow-free window when rainstorms may mobilize sediment, resulting in debris flows. To ascertain the presence of a climate change signal we examined the timing, geography, and initiation mechanisms of recent (2001 to 2006) non-volcanic debris flows from Mount Rainier, Washington, the highest volcano in the Cascade Range with the largest ice-volume in the conterminous United States. Debris flows damage infrastructure, requiring costly repairs. Debris flows also deposit volumes of sediment in streams, potentially exacerbating future flood hazards. To characterize recent debris flows, field reconnaissance was conducted summer 2008 along suspected debris flow paths from initiation to deposition. Results from summer fieldwork were used in conjunction with analysis of aerial photography, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and other data to determine characteristics of debris flow initiation sites, such as elevation, slope, orientation, upslope contributing area, and proximity to glaciers. Recent debris flow initiation sites were also examined in reference to glacier characteristics, such as elevation of glacier termini, glacier retreat, orientation, area, and volume, for the years 1913, 1971, and 1994 from past work by Nylen (2004). Characterization of debris flow initiation sites and definition of the locations of longitudinal transitions in debris flow behavior allows estimation of future debris flow hazards also allows inferences to be drawn regarding initiation mechanisms to be inferred and suggests a trajectory for changing debris flow hazards due to climate change. Debris flows at Mt. Rainier occur in late summer through fall and recent events were no exception, occurring from August through November. A total of twelve debris flows occurred in six stream channels during the period of 2001 to 2006. Three channels not previously known to have experienced debris flows, two south-facing and one north-facing, were impacted. Debris flows tracks led up to glacier meltwater fed, steep-walled channels or gullies in unvegetated, unconsolidated Quaternary-age material immediately downslope of glacier margins. Debris flows initiated at an average elevation of 2181 m and an average channel gradient of 39°. While glaciers appear to play a key role in debris flow initiation, simple glacier metrics could not be used to distinguish glaciers near debris flow heads from those without proximal debris flows heads. All but one of the twelve debris flows initiated during rainfall. The single debris flow that occurred during dry-weather is described by Vallance et al. (2002). Rainfall induced debris flows in 2003, 2005, and 2006 were not associated with landslide scarps, rockfalls, or other indications of large slope failures. Rather, debris flows initiated in steep-walled gullies fed by glacier meltwater that were visible on aerial photography prior to the first known debris flow initiation in a particular channel. The steep flanks of Mt. Rainier contain many similar gullies that have not previously been associated with debris flows, but debris flow producing gullies are at higher elevations than gullies not associated with debris flows. The small population of recent debris flows and incomplete historic record of debris flows for the periods 1926 to 1985 and 1993 to 2001 limits analysis of changes in debris flow timing, geography, or triggering mechanism. The magnitude of recent events may have initially appeared greater than historic events as the 2005 and 2006 storms are the only ones known to have produced multiple debris flows in the recorded history of Mt. Rainier National Park. Yet much of the damage initially attributed to debris flows was due to widespread, severe flooding. Ongoing, detailed record keeping and possibly reconstruction of past events through paired geomorphic reconnaissance and dendrochronology is needed before conclusions regarding the impacts of climate change on debris flow initiation can be reached.

In November 2006 a Pineapple Express rainstorm moved through the Pacific Northwest generating record precipitation, 22 to 50 cm in the two-day event on Mt. Rainier. Copeland (2009) and Legg (2013) identified debris flows in seven drainages in 2006; Inter Fork, Kautz, Ohanapecosh, Pyramid, Tahoma, Van Trump, and West Fork of the White River. This study identified seven more drainages: Carbon, Fryingpan, Muddy Fork Cowlitz, North Puyallup, South Mowich, South Puyallup, and White Rivers. Twenty-nine characteristics, or attributes, associated with the drainages around the mountain were collected. Thirteen were used in a regression analysis in order to develop a susceptibility map for debris flows on Mt. Rainier: Percent vegetation, percent steep slopes, gradient, Melton's Ruggedness Number, height, area, percent bedrock, percent surficial, percent glacier, stream has direct connection with a glacier, average annual precipitation, event precipitation, and peak precipitation. All variables used in the regression were measured in the upper basin. Two models, both with 91% accuracy, were generated for the mountain. Model 1 determined gradient of the upper basin, upper basin area, and percent bedrock to be the most significant variables. This model predicted 10 drainages with high potential for failure: Carbon, Fryingpan, Kautz, Nisqually, North Mowich, South Mowich, South Puyallup, Tahoma, West Fork of the White, and White Rivers. Of the remaining drainages 5 are moderate, 10 are low, and 9 are very low. Model 2 found MRN (Melton's Ruggedness Number) and percent bedrock to be the most significant. This model predicted 10 drainages with high potential for failure during future similar events: Fryingpan, Kautz, Nisqually, North Mowich, Pyramid, South Mowich, South Puyallup, Tahoma, Van Trump, and White Rivers. Of the remaining drainages, 6 are moderate, 9 are low, and 9 are very low. The two models are very similar. Initiation site elevations range from 1442 m to 2448 m. Six of the thirteen initiation sites are above 2000 m. Proglacial gully erosion initiated debris flows seem to occur at all elevations. Those debris flows initiated partially by landslides occur between 1400 and about 1800 m. The combined regression analysis model for the Mt. Rainier, Mt. St. Helens, Mt. Hood, and Mt. Adams raised the predictive accuracy from 69% (Olson, 2012) to 77%. This model determined that percent glacier/ice and percent vegetation were the most significant.

A study of the geomorphology of rivers draining Mount Rainier, Washington, was completed to identify sources of sediment to the river network; to identify important processes in the sediment delivery system; to assess current sediment loads in rivers draining Mount Rainier; to evaluate if there were trends in streamflow or sediment load since the early 20th century; and to assess how rates of sedimentation might continue into the future using published climate-change scenarios. Rivers draining Mount Rainier carry heavy sediment loads sourced primarily from the volcano that cause acute aggradation in deposition reaches as far away as the Puget Lowland. Calculated yields ranged from 2,000 tonnes per square kilometer per year [(tonnes/km2)/yr] on the upper Nisqually River to 350 (tonnes/km2)/yr on the lower Puyallup River, notably larger than sediment yields of 50–200 (tonnes/km2)/yr typical for other Cascade Range rivers. These rivers can be assumed to be in a general state of sediment surplus. As a result, future aggradation rates will be largely influenced by the underlying hydrology carrying sediment downstream. The active-channel width of rivers directly draining Mount Rainier in 2009, used as a proxy for sediment released from Mount Rainier, changed little between 1965 and 1994 reflecting a climatic period that was relatively quiet hydrogeomorphically. From 1994 to 2009, a marked increase in geomorphic disturbance caused the active channels in many river reaches to widen. Comparing active-channel widths of glacier-draining rivers in 2009 to the distance of glacier retreat between 1913 and 1994 showed no correlation, suggesting that geomorphic disturbance in river reaches directly downstream of glaciers is not strongly governed by the degree of glacial retreat. In contrast, there was a correlation between active-channel width and the percentage of superglacier debris mantling the glacier, as measured in 1971. A conceptual model of sediment delivery processes from the mountain indicates that rockfalls, glaciers, debris flows, and main-stem flooding act sequentially to deliver sediment from Mount Rainier to river reaches in the Puget Lowland over decadal time scales. Greater-than-normal runoff was associated with cool phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Streamflow-gaging station data from four unregulated rivers directly draining Mount Rainier indicated no statistically significant trends of increasing peak flows over the course of the 20th century. The total sediment load of the upper Nisqually River from 1945 to 2011 was determined to be 1,200,000±180,000 tonnes/yr. The suspended-sediment load in the lower Puyallup River at Puyallup, Washington, was 860,000±300,000 tonnes/yr between 1978 and 1994, but the long-term load for the Puyallup River likely is about 1,000,000±400,000 tonnes/yr. Using a coarse-resolution bedload transport relation, the long-term average bedload was estimated to be about 30,000 tonnes/yr in the lower White River near Auburn, Washington, which was four times greater than bedload in the Puyallup River and an order of magnitude greater than bedload in the Carbon River. Analyses indicate a general increase in the sediment loads in Mount Rainier rivers in the 1990s and 2000s relative to the time period from the 1960s to 1980s. Data are insufficient, however, to determine definitively if post-1990 increases in sediment production and transport from Mount Rainier represent a statistically significant increase relative to sediment-load values typical from Mount Rainier during the entire 20th century. One-dimensional river-hydraulic and sediment-transport models simulated the entrainment, transport, attrition, and deposition of bed material. Simulations showed that bed-material loads were largest for the Nisqually River and smallest for the Carbon River. The models were used to simulate how increases in sediment supply to rivers transport through the river systems and affect lowland reaches. For each simulation, the input sediment pulse evolved through a combination of translation, dispersion, and attrition as it moved downstream. The characteristic transport times for the median sediment-size pulse to arrive downstream for the Nisqually, Carbon, Puyallup, and White Rivers were approximately 70, 300, 80, and 60 years, respectively.

Mountain glaciers are receding worldwide with numerous consequences including changing hydrology and geomorphology. This study focuses on changes in glacier area on Mt. Hood, Oregon and Mt. Rainier, Washington where damaging debris flows have occurred in glaciated basins. Landsat imagery is used to map debris-free ice on a decadal time scale from 1987 to 2005. Debris-free glacier ice is clearly delineated using a ratio of Landsat spectral bands in the near-infrared part of the spectrum (bands 4 & 5). Landsat scenes were chosen during the months of September and October to minimize snow cover left over from the accumulation season and maximize exposure of debris-free glacial ice. SNOTEL data were also used to find the lowest snow year for each decade to minimize the potential of misclassifying remnant snow as glacial ice. Changes in debris-free ice are mapped to produce the most up-to-date rates of glacier retreat. Average glacial slopes, derived from airborne LiDAR data are used to compute slope corrected debris-free ice areas for all glaciers. A threshold value for the Landsat NDGI scenes was selected based on threshold testing on the Eliot and Reid glaciers on Mt. Hood. Contradicting earlier studies that say the glaciers on Mt. Hood are receding faster than the glaciers on Mt. Rainier, results show that from 1987 to 2005 Mt. Rainier and Mt. Hood lost similar amounts of debris-free ice extent at 14.0% and 13.9%, respectively. For both Mt. Hood and Mt. Rainier the change in slope corrected debris-free ice area was greater than that of the projected area change due to the steep slopes of both mountains. For Mt. Rainier an increase in recession rate was shown from 1992-2005 compared to 1987-1992 while on Mt. Hood the opposite is seen. On Mt. Rainier it was found that highly fragmented glaciers at lower elevations such as the Inter, Pyramid, and the Van Trump Glaciers lost the highest percent of their original 1987 ice extent and were also shown to be associated with new debris flows in 2006. On Mt. Hood none of the 2006 debris flows initiated within zones of recent glacial recession, however, all debris flows from 2006 originated from streams with a direct connection to glaciers. The Newton Clark Glacier, having lost the most coverage of debris-free ice from 1987 to 2005, is also associated with the highest number of debris-flows in its drainage since 1980. Precipitation data for both mountains show no trend but there was a statistically significant increase in summer air temperature at Mt. Hood over the period 1984-2009. This study suggests that glaciers may play a role in the location of initiation sites, of debris flows, but there is not enough evidence to argue that glacier recession is responsible for producing debris flows.