Features the Hurricane Dynamics Research Group of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Commerce based in Princeton, New Jersey. The mission of the group is to investigate the thermo-hydrodynamical processes involved in the formation of hurricanes using numerical simulation models and studying small-scale features of hurricane systems.

While both computer model and official track forecasts of Atlantic Basin hurricanes have improved significantly over the past several decades, forecasts of intensity continue to prove difficult. Even specialized hurricane models struggle with predicting intensity. This study analyzes the intensity errors of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Hurricane Model for 19 major hurricanes over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea from 1998 to 2008. Using the measure of skill relative to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR), the GFDL forecasts generally improved throughout most of the 11-year period, although there were some exceptions to this increase in skill. Comparing the GFDL to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), it is found that the GFDL was slightly outperformed by SHIPS on most of the forecast categories and times. It seems that there is a correlation between higher intensity storms and higher errors (R = 0.53), and there is also a clear relationship between large negative errors and rapid intensification (R = 0.62). This relationship is explored for some of the "higher-error" cases by comparing the GFDL forecast intensity progression with the actual intensity change. Hurricanes Dean (2007) and Felix (2007) are also analyzed in more detail, since both of these storms were exceptions to the general trend in increased skill from 2000-2008. It is hoped that this and further analysis will illuminate reasons for the model's difficulty with the intensity forecasts, and provide a basis for improving model forecasts and official forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity.

A comprehensive summary of tropical cyclone variability at time scales from intraseasonal and interannual to interdecadal and centennial. Major climate oscillations (Madden-Julian, El Niño, Atlantic Meridional Mode and Pacific Decadal) are covered, and their impacts on tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are discussed.

From killer storms to their implications for the insurance premiums of U.S. residents, this much-awaited update explores the ecological, social, and economic consequences of hurricanes and their effects on both coastal and inland areas. In September 1776 the so-called "Hurricane of Independence" hit Canada and the northeastern United States, leading to 4,170 deaths. In 1900 around 8,000 perished in the Galveston Hurricane and the resulting tidal surge. Coastal defenses, early warning systems, and evacuation procedures have improved enormously. However, hurricanes still pose a potentially devastating threat to life and property, especially in coastal regions of the United States and the Caribbean. What causes these extreme storms? How can we best defend ourselves? Hurricanes: A Reference Handbook explores the historical, ecological, economic, and social dimensions of hurricanes in North America. Synthesizing literature from a wide range of authoritative sources, this book is an invaluable guide to hurricanes and their impact and is essential reading for students, scientists, mariners, and coastal residents alike.

This book surveys the past, present, and potential future variability of hurricanes and typhoons on a variety of timescales using newly developed approaches based on geological and archival records, in addition to more traditional approaches based on the analysis of the historical record of tropical cyclone tracks. A unique aspect of the book is that it provides an overview of the developing field of paleotempestology, which uses geological, biological, and documentary evidence to reconstruct prehistoric changes in hurricane landfall. The book also presents a particularly wide sampling of ongoing efforts to extend the best track data sets using historical material from many sources, including Chinese archives, British naval logbooks, Spanish colonial records, and early diaries from South Carolina. The book will be of particular interest to tropical meteorologists, geologists, and climatologists as well as to the catastrophe reinsurance industry, graduate students in meteorology, and public employees active in planning and emergency management.