The subsequent incorporation of model uncertainties into probabilistic models of basin evolution and behavior constitutes the second half of this book. Throughout, the author interweaves a discussion of scientific probability, risk, and strategy within the context of improving our ability to assess strategic hydrocarbon resources.

It is a well known fact that geological investigations are characterized by particularly high incertainties. Furthermore,decisions related to geology, such as mineral exploration, mining investmentsetc. are connected with higher risks than similar decisions in the branches of industry and economy. Finally there are a number of highly dangerous natural hazards, e.g. earthquakes, volcanic activities, inundations etc. that are directly depending on geological processes. It is of paramount interest to study them, to describe them, to understand their origin and - if - possible to predict them. Uncertainties, geological risks and natural hazards are often mentioned in geological text-books, conference proceedings and articles, butno overall evaluation of them has been written so far.The complexity of these problems requires a thorough mathematical treatment.This book has been written with the purpose of presenting a detailed evaluation of the entire problem, discussing it from both the geological and the mathematical aspects.

Economic Risk in Hydrocarbon Exploration provides a total framework for assessing the uncertainties associated with exploration risk from beginning to end. Numerous examples with accompanying microcomputer algorithms illustrate how to quantitatively approach economic risk. The text compares detailed assumptions and models of economic risk, and presents numerical examples throughout to facilitate hands-on calculations using popular spread-sheet packages on personal computers. Covers economic risk from exploration through production models Brings methods to a level where all can be done on a PC Analyzes numerical examples from the real world Removes "mystery" from how economics is done Addresses assumptions in models and shows how they influence projections

This book presents detailed explanations of how to formulate field development plans for oil and gas discovery. The data and case studies provided here, obtained from the authors’ field experience in the oil and gas industry around the globe, offer a real-world context for the theories and procedures discussed. The book covers all aspects of field development plan processes, from reserve estimations to economic analyses. It shows readers in both the oil and gas industry and in academia how to prepare field development plans in a straightforward way, and with substantially less uncertainty.

High levels of uncertainty are a trademark of geological investigations, such as the search for oil, diamonds, and uranium. So business ventures related to geology, such as mineral exploration and mining, are naturally associated with higher risks than more traditional entrepreneurial ventures in industry and economy. There are also a number of dangerous natural hazards, e.g. earthquakes, volcanic activities, and inundations, that are the direct result of geological processes. It is of paramount interest to study them all, to describe them, to understand their origin and - if possible - to predict them. While uncertainties, geological risks and natural hazards are often mentioned in geological textbooks, conferences papers, and articles, no comprehensive and systematic evaluation has so far been attempted. This book, written at an appropriately sophisticated level to deal with complexity of these problems, presents a detailed evaluation of the entire problem, discussing it from both, the geological and the mathematical aspects.