This is the only book actuaries need to understand generalized linear models (GLMs) for insurance applications. GLMs are used in the insurance industry to support critical decisions. Until now, no text has introduced GLMs in this context or addressed the problems specific to insurance data. Using insurance data sets, this practical, rigorous book treats GLMs, covers all standard exponential family distributions, extends the methodology to correlated data structures, and discusses recent developments which go beyond the GLM. The issues in the book are specific to insurance data, such as model selection in the presence of large data sets and the handling of varying exposure times. Exercises and data-based practicals help readers to consolidate their skills, with solutions and data sets given on the companion website. Although the book is package-independent, SAS code and output examples feature in an appendix and on the website. In addition, R code and output for all the examples are provided on the website.

Non-life insurance pricing is the art of setting the price of an insurance policy, taking into consideration varoius properties of the insured object and the policy holder. Introduced by British actuaries generalized linear models (GLMs) have become today a the standard aproach for tariff analysis. The book focuses on methods based on GLMs that have been found useful in actuarial practice and provides a set of tools for a tariff analysis. Basic theory of GLMs in a tariff analysis setting is presented with useful extensions of standarde GLM theory that are not in common use. The book meets the European Core Syllabus for actuarial education and is written for actuarial students as well as practicing actuaries. To support reader real data of some complexity are provided at www.math.su.se/GLMbook.

Predictive modeling uses data to forecast future events. It exploits relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables from past occurrences to predict future outcomes. Forecasting financial events is a core skill that actuaries routinely apply in insurance and other risk-management applications. Predictive Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science emphasizes life-long learning by developing tools in an insurance context, providing the relevant actuarial applications, and introducing advanced statistical techniques that can be used to gain a competitive advantage in situations with complex data. Volume 2 examines applications of predictive modeling. Where Volume 1 developed the foundations of predictive modeling, Volume 2 explores practical uses for techniques, focusing on property and casualty insurance. Readers are exposed to a variety of techniques in concrete, real-life contexts that demonstrate their value and the overall value of predictive modeling, for seasoned practicing analysts as well as those just starting out.

This book teaches multiple regression and time series and how to use these to analyze real data in risk management and finance.

This textbook presents an introduction to generalized linear models, complete with real-world data sets and practice problems, making it applicable for both beginning and advanced students of applied statistics. Generalized linear models (GLMs) are powerful tools in applied statistics that extend the ideas of multiple linear regression and analysis of variance to include response variables that are not normally distributed. As such, GLMs can model a wide variety of data types including counts, proportions, and binary outcomes or positive quantities. The book is designed with the student in mind, making it suitable for self-study or a structured course. Beginning with an introduction to linear regression, the book also devotes time to advanced topics not typically included in introductory textbooks. It features chapter introductions and summaries, clear examples, and many practice problems, all carefully designed to balance theory and practice. The text also provides a working knowledge of applied statistical practice through the extensive use of R, which is integrated into the text. Other features include: • Advanced topics such as power variance functions, saddlepoint approximations, likelihood score tests, modified profile likelihood, small-dispersion asymptotics, and randomized quantile residuals • Nearly 100 data sets in the companion R package GLMsData • Examples that are cross-referenced to the companion data set, allowing readers to load the data and follow the analysis in their own R session