This Selected Issues paper examines application of fiscal framework alternatives to the case of Peru. Although growth has been at historical highs over the last decade, Peru still has an important infrastructure gap and a quarter of its population still lives in poverty. This paper applies illustratively new modified frameworks recently developed by the IMF to the case of Peru. It takes stock of analytical considerations to resource management, and analyzes Peru’s natural resource wealth and the investment climate. The paper also presents results from simulating alternative Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) based approaches and expenditure smoothing fiscal rules.

This 2010 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in Peru decelerated sharply in 2009, owing to the global financial crisis, but remained positive at about 1 percent for the year, despite a few months in negative territory. Thanks to the strong buffers built in recent years, Peru was able to implement a significant monetary and fiscal policy response, which helped to avoid a credit crunch, support domestic demand, and sustain employment. The central bank injected substantial liquidity in the financial system and lowered the policy rate to an historic low of 1.25 percent.

Against the background of a strong economic performance over the last quarter of a century, Peru has been hit by multiple shocks in the last several years. Adequate policies and very strong policy frameworks have made the economy resilient. Following a steep decline in 2020 at the outset of the pandemic and a rapid recovery in 2021, growth slowed significantly in 2022 as the policy stimulus was withdrawn and external and financial conditions deteriorated. Recent political developments suggest that the new government needs to work across the political spectrum to create broader political consensus, reduce uncertainty, ease social tensions, and boost growth.

This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China’s investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconomic model for a small open and partially dollarized economy is developed and estimated for Peru to measure the risk spillovers, and simulate domestic macroeconomic responses in different scenarios with these two external risks. The simulation results suggest that Peru’s output is vulnerable to both risks, particularly the U.S. monetary policy tightening. Simulations also highlight the importance of higher exchange rate flexiblity and a lower degree of dollarization, which could help mitigate the negative spillover effects of these external risks.

Peru Investment and Business Guide Volume 1 Strategic and Practical Information

This systematic analysis of the lessons learned at Mibanco--a micro-finance bank in Peru designed to provide sophisticated banking services to poor and low-income households--provides an example for microfinance banks in Asia. Mibanco's successes, which managed to blend aid to large segments of society that badly needed financial services with profitability--are potentially very instructive for an Asian private sector that has not yet been convinced of the profitability of microfinance banks. Among the lessons highlighted for microfinance banks and economic scholars is the usefulness of balancing rural investment and aid with delivering services to urban regions.