This book applies the approach of technology assessment to the telephone. The author's analysis forecasts the effect of the telephone on society and compares it with the reality. This book not only examines the social consequences of the telephone, but provides a model for future efficient assessments of new technologies. It documents a largely unknown piece of the history of American technology and anlayzes the requirements for success in technological forecasting.

This book applies the approach of technology assessment to the telephone. The author's analysis forecasts the effect of the telephone on society and compares it with the reality. This book not only examines the social consequences of the telephone, but provides a model for future efficient assessments of new technologies. It documents a largely unknown piece of the history of American technology and anlayzes the requirements for success in technological forecasting.

Forecasting models are constructed for the monthly inward and outward station movements of the Wisconsin Telephone Company using an iterative procedure developed by Box and Jenkins. Data covering the period January 1951 through October 1966 were used to develop the model. Forecasts with 95% probability limits were calculated for three years from November 1966 and compared with the actual observations. The properties of the models are discussed in detail. Alternative models for forecasting are also entertained and compared with those chosen. (Author).