Outlines the full range of qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods. Discusses forecasting challenges, including learning the difference between explaining the past and predicting the future, and the impact of judgmental biases; and forecasting applications for short, medium, and long-term horizons. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Discussing the future of energy production and management in a changing world, this book contains the proceedings of the first international conference on Energy Production and Management in the 21st Century - The Quest for Sustainable Energy.Topics covered include: Energy policies; Energy and economic growth; Energy efficiency; Energy storage.

Role and application of forecasting in organizations; Introduction to management forecasting; Sales forecasting requirements; Forecasting requirements for operations planning and control; Capacity planning forecasting requirements; Financial forecasting; Forecasting and strategic planning; Forecasting in the electric utility industry; State and local government revenue forecasting; Population forecasting; Forecasting: the issues; Approaches to forecasting; Smoothing methods for short-term planning and control; A practical overview of arima models for time series forecasting; Decomposition methods for medium term planning annnd budgeting; Econometric methods for managerial applications; Judgemtal and bayesian forecasting; An integrated approach to medium andlong term forecasting: the marketing mix system; Forecasting challenges; Forecasting and the environment: the challenges of rapid change; Price forecasting using experience curves and the product life-cycle concept; Life cycle forecasting; Forecasting recessions; Forecasting macroeconomic variables: an eclectic approach; ; Managing the forecasting functions; Forecasting and planning: an evaluation; Integrating forecasting and decision making; The forecasting audit; The future of forecasting.

The future of energy production, operation and management in a changing world was the focus of the 5th International Conference on Energy Production and Management. Papers presented at the meeting form this volume. A focus is placed on the comparison of conventional energy sources, particularly hydrocarbons, with a number of other ways of producing energy, emphasising new technological developments, based on renewable resources such as solar, hydro, wind and geothermal. Key to sustainability is the need to convert new sustainable sources of energy into useful forms (electricity, heat, fuel), while finding efficient ways of storage and distribution. In many cases, the challenges lie as much with the production of such renewable energy at an acceptable cost, including damage to the environment, as with the integration of those resources into the existing infrastructure. The changes required to progress from an economy based mainly on hydrocarbons to one taking advantage of sustainable energy resources are massive and require considerable scientific research as well as the development of advanced engineering systems. Such progress demands close collaboration between different disciplines in order to arrive at optimum solutions. Also discussed is the energy use of industrial processes, including the embedded energy contents of materials, such as those in the built environment. Energy production, operation, distribution and usage, result in environmental risks that need to be better understood. They are part of energy economics and relate to human environmental health as well as ecosystems behaviour. An emphasis is placed on the ways in which more efficient use can be made of conventional as well as new energy sources. This relates to savings in energy consumption, reduction of energy losses, as well as the implementation of smart devices and the design of intelligent distribution networks.

The role and importance of forecasting in management; Quantitative forecasting methods; Management judgement in forecasting; Forecasting applications.

“Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including: • The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. • China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. • A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. • Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. • The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead. For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.geopoliticalfutures.com.