"From the unique perspective of a U.S. Forest Service elite, a Type 1 Interagency "Hotshot" Crew (the "SEAL Team Six of the firefighting world"), poems weave together memory, urgency, and the passage of time. Features segments from actual incident reports, forcing readers to witness what it's like to stand before an inferno, walking with one foot in the black. An elegy for the self and the damage one sustains fighting wildfires"--

Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.

God's global reset has begun--and He WILL get the glory out of the chaos. An unprecedented shaking is underway in the systems and nations of this earth. But even as the world churns with upheaval, you can stand firm. Through biblical teaching and sound prophetic insight, pastor and prophet Joshua Giles will help you discover God's plans and strategies to prepare for the unusual and uncertain times ahead. Here is everything you need to align with heaven's agenda, overcome fear of the future, find your purpose and thrive amid the change. "Joshua Giles reveals how to be positioned as a glorious overcomer and frontliner in the midst of all that lies ahead. I highly recommend this book."--PATRICIA KING, author, minister, media host "Joshua Giles penned a relevant resource with an Issachar anointing and prophetic insight to see from heaven's lens the overall plan of God for the future of the Church."--DR. HAKEEM COLLINS, prophetic voice, international speaker, author of The Power of Aligning Your Words to God's Will

From the heart of tornado alley, Smith takes us into the eye of America's most devastating storms and behind the scenes of some of the world's most renowned scientific institutions to uncover the relationship between mankind and the weather.

Welcome to the wonderful world of weather! From the warm, balmy days of summer to the cold, crisp nights of winter, youngsters will learn all about the four seasons, as well as what the sun is, how clouds form, why it rains, what causes a rainbow, and so much more.

Positive feedback--when A produces B, which in turn produces even more A--drives not only abrupt climate changes, but also disruptive events in economics and finance, from asset bubbles to debt crises, bank runs, even corporate corruption. But economists, with few exceptions, have ignored this reality for fifty years, holding on to the unreasonable belief in the wisdom of the market. It's past time to be asking how markets really work. Can we replace economic magical thinking with a better means of predicting what the financial future holds, in order to prepare for--or even avoid--the next extreme economic event? Here, physicist and acclaimed science writer Mark Buchanan answers these questions and more in a master lesson on a smarter economics, which accepts that markets act much like weather. Market instability is as natural--and dangerous--as a prairie twister. With Buchanan's help, perhaps we can better govern the markets and weather their storms.