Food inflation and food price volatility in India: Trends and determinants
Title | Food inflation and food price volatility in India: Trends and determinants PDF eBook |
Author | Sekhar, C.S.C. |
Publisher | Intl Food Policy Res Inst |
Pages | 80 |
Release | 2017-05-05 |
Genre | Political Science |
ISBN |
The study analyzes food inflation trends in India over the last decade. Annual trends show that different commodities have contributed to food inflation in different years and that no single commodity shows uniformly high inflation. A decomposition exercise shows that eggs, meat, fish, milk, cereals, and vegetables were generally the main contributors to recent food inflation. The contribution of pulses, except pigeon peas (arhar), and of edible oils remained low. Fruits and vegetables displayed a much higher degree of intrayear volatility, and high-weight commodities in the national consumption basket also showed very high inflation rates, which is a cause for concern. Results of the econometric analysis show that both supply and demand factors are important. Cereal and edible oil prices appear to be mainly driven by supply-side factors such as production, wage rates, and minimum support prices. For pulses, the effects of supply- and demand-side factors appear almost equal. The prices of eggs, meat, fish, milk, and fruits and vegetables appear to be driven mainly by demand-side factors.
Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy
Title | Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy PDF eBook |
Author | Matthias Kalkuhl |
Publisher | Springer |
Pages | 620 |
Release | 2016-04-12 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 3319282018 |
This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility?
Title | What Explains the Rise in Food Price Volatility? PDF eBook |
Author | Mr.Shaun K. Roache |
Publisher | International Monetary Fund |
Pages | 31 |
Release | 2010-05-01 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 145520112X |
The macroeconomic effects of large food price swings can be broad and far-reaching, including the balance of payments of importers and exporters, budgets, inflation, and poverty. For market participants and policymakers, managing low frequency volatility—i.e., the component of volatility that persists for longer than one harvest year—may be more challenging as uncertainty regarding its persistence is likely to be higher. This paper measures the low frequency volatility of food commodity spot prices using the spline- GARCH approach. It finds that low frequency volatility is positively correlated across different commodities, suggesting an important role for common factors. It also identifies a number of determinants of low frequency volatility, two of which—the variation in U.S. inflation and the U.S. dollar exchange rate—explain a relatively large part of the rise in volatility since the mid-1990s.
Understanding India's Food Inflation
Title | Understanding India's Food Inflation PDF eBook |
Author | |
Publisher | |
Pages | 42 |
Release | 2015 |
Genre | Food prices |
ISBN |
Over the past decade, India has seen a prolonged period of high inflation, to a large extent driven by persistently-high food inflation. This paper investigates the demand and supply factors behind the contribution of relative food inflation to headline CPI inflation. It concludes that in the absence of a stronger food supply growth response, food inflation may exceed non-food inflation by 2 1/2-3 percentage points per year. The sustainability of a long-term inflation target of 4 percent under India's recently-adopted flexible inflation targeting framework will depend on enhancing food supply, agricultural market-based pricing, and reducing price distortions. A well-designed cereal buffer stock liquidation policy could also help mitigate food inflation volatility. --Abstract.
Understanding India’s Food Inflation
Title | Understanding India’s Food Inflation PDF eBook |
Author | Rahul Anand |
Publisher | International Monetary Fund |
Pages | 42 |
Release | 2016-01-05 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 1513567888 |
Over the past decade, India has seen a prolonged period of high inflation, to a large extent driven by persistently-high food inflation. This paper investigates the demand and supply factors behind the contribution of relative food inflation to headline CPI inflation. It concludes that in the absence of a stronger food supply growth response, food inflation may exceed non-food inflation by 21⁄2–3 percentage points per year. The sustainability of a long-term inflation target of 4 percent under India’s recently-adopted flexible inflation targeting framework will depend on enhancing food supply, agricultural market-based pricing, and reducing price distortions. A well-designed cereal buffer stock liquidation policy could also help mitigate food inflation volatility.
Income Versus Prices: How Does The Business Cycle Affect Food (In)-Security?
Title | Income Versus Prices: How Does The Business Cycle Affect Food (In)-Security? PDF eBook |
Author | Mr. Christian Bogmans |
Publisher | International Monetary Fund |
Pages | 40 |
Release | 2021-09-24 |
Genre | Business & Economics |
ISBN | 155775246X |
We study how two aspects of food insecurity - caloric insufficiency and diet composition - are affected by aggregate economic fluctuations. The use of cross-country panel data allows us to adopt a global prospective on the identification of the macroeconomic determinants of food insecurity. Income shocks are the most relevant driver of food insecurity, displaying high elasticities at the early stages of economic development. The role of food price shocks is more limited. Social protection has a direct effect and mitigates the impact of income shocks. Effects are highly heterogeneous across a range of structural characteristics of the economy, highlighting the role of distributional aspects and of food import dependency.
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Advanced Research in Social and Economic Science (ICARSE)
Title | Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Advanced Research in Social and Economic Science (ICARSE) PDF eBook |
Author | Bobur Sobirov |
Publisher | Springer Nature |
Pages | 843 |
Release | 2024 |
Genre | Electronic books |
ISBN | 2384762478 |