1 The Importance of Irreversibility and Learning - Familiar 11 Bxamples Revisited 1. 1 Neoclassical Investment Models: A Brief Survey 11 1. 1. 1 The Standard Neoclassical Investment Theory Model 13 1. 1. 2 The Investment Model with Adjustment Costs 15 1. 1. 3 The Irreversibility of Investment 17 1. 1. 4 Delivery Lags 18 1. 2 Flexible Manufacturing Systems 22 1. 2. 1 Some Basic Facts about Manufacturing 23 1. 2. 2 The Determinants of the Flexibility of Manufacturing Systems 25 1. 2. 3 Manufacturing as a Multiperiod Choice Problem 28 1. 3 Conclusions 30 2 The Role of Irreversibility and Learning in Sequential Decision Problems - Basic Concepts 33 2. 1 The Two-Period Model without Uncertainty 33 2. 1. 1 The Elements of the Model 34 2. 1. 2 Economic Examples 37 2. 1. 3 Some Basic Results 39 2. 1. 4 Intertemporal Opportunity Costs 42 2. 2 The Two-Period Model with Uncertainty 46 2. 2. 1 The Elements of the Kodel 46 2. 2. 2 Special Cases 50 2. 2. 3 Flexibility and the Value of Information 54 2. 2. 4 An Example: Waiting to Invest 56 2. 3 Switching Costs 59 2. 3. 1 The Extended Model 59 2. 3. 2 An Example: Money Demand as Demand for Flexibility 61 2. 4 Summary and Outlook 63 3 Determinants of the Optimal Choice in Sequential Decision Problems - The Two-Period Case 65 3. 1 The Formulation of the Problem 66 3. 1.

Modem option pricing theory was developed in the late sixties and early seventies by F. Black, R. C. Merton and M. Scholes as an analytical tool for pricing and hedging option contracts and over-the-counter warrants. However, already in the seminal paper by Black and Scholes, the applicability of the model was regarded as much broader. In the second part of their paper, the authors demonstrated that a levered firm's equity can be regarded as an option on the value of the firm, and thus can be priced by option valuation techniques. A year later, Merton showed how the default risk structure of corporate bonds can be determined by option pricing techniques. Option pricing models are now used to price virtually the full range of financial instruments and financial guarantees such as deposit insurance and collateral, and to quantify the associated risks. Over the years, option pricing has evolved from a set of specific models to a general analytical framework for analyzing the production process of financial contracts and their function in the financial intermediation process in a continuous time framework. However, virtually no attempt has been made in the literature to integrate game theory aspects, i. e. strategic financial decisions of the agents, into the continuous time framework. This is the unique contribution of the thesis of Dr. Alexandre Ziegler. Benefiting from the analytical tractability of continuous time models and the closed form valuation models for derivatives, Dr.

Credit risk is an important consideration in most financial transactions. As for any other risk, the risk taker requires compensation for the undiversifiable part of the risk taken. In bond markets, for example, riskier issues generally promise investors a higher yield. The same principle also applies to financial derivatives. Otherwise identical derivative securities will likely have differ ent prices if the counterparties are not of the same credit quality. Although this argument seems intuitively convincing, widely used pricing models for financial derivatives do not incorporate credit risk effects. This research monograph analyzes the effect of credit risk on financial derivatives prices. Credit risk can affect derivatives prices in a variety of ways. First, financial derivatives can be subject to counterparty default risk. Second, a derivative can be written on a security which is subject to credit risk, such as a corporate bond. Third, the credit risk itself can be the un derlying of a derivative instrument. The text focuses on valuation models which take into account counterparty risk but also addresses the other two valuation problems.

This proceedings volume consists of papers presented at the Seventh International Workshop on Computer-Aided Scheduling of Pllblic Transport, which was held at th th the Massachusetts Institute of Technology from August 5 to 8 , 1997. In the tradition of alternating Workshops between North American and Europe - Chicago (1975), Leeds (1980), Montreal (1983), Hamburg (1986), Montreal (1990), and Lisbon (1993), Cambridge (Massachusetts, USA) was selected for the Workshop in 1997. As in earlier workshops, the central theme dealt with vehicle and crew scheduling problems and the development of software systems incorporating operations research techniques for operational planning in public transport. However, following the trend that started in Hamburg in 1987, the scope of this Workshop was broadened to include topics in related fields. Two trends underlie this. First, the recognition that the core scheduling issues in public transport have important common elements with other application areas in which extensive work is also underway, and that it is vital to learn from these other initiatives. Second, while scheduling is indeed a core problem in public transport planning, and has shown the first and greatest benefits from computer application, it is intimately related to the preceding tasks in the planning hierarchy, such as service design, and the following tasks such as operations control and public information.

Environmental Kuznets Curves - one of the most controversial issues of current environmental economics - suggest that economic growth may lead to environmental quality improvements. Why and under which circumstances this may be so, are the questions addressed in this book. The approach taken is formal, using techniques of static and dynamic optimisation. In addition, the main assumptions, arguments and conclusions are also presented in a non-formel way.

In the last 25 years, the fuzzy set theory has been applied in many disciplines such as operations research, management science, control theory, artificial intelligence/expert system, etc. In this volume, methods and applications of crisp, fuzzy and possibilistic multiple objective decision making are first systematically and thoroughly reviewed and classified. This state-of-the-art survey provides readers with a capsule look into the existing methods, and their characteristics and applicability to analysis of fuzzy and possibilistic programming problems. To realize practical fuzzy modelling, it presents solutions for real-world problems including production/manufacturing, location, logistics, environment management, banking/finance, personnel, marketing, accounting, agriculture economics and data analysis. This book is a guided tour through the literature in the rapidly growing fields of operations research and decision making and includes the most up-to-date bibliographical listing of literature on the topic.

Jay Forrester's Economic Dynamics was published in 1971 and The Limits to Growth by Dennis Meadows and his associates appeared a year later. The publication of those two books gave rise to twenty years of intense research into the economics of exhaustible resources, research which everywhere has had a substantial impact both on public debate and on academic curricula. And now, just as that line of research is losing steam, economists are focussing on problems associated with the degradation of the natural environment, problems which call for models which, in their formal structure, are quite similar to those already developed in resource economics. This is therefore an appropriate moment for the appearance of a thorough exposition of the economics of exhaustible resources. For that is what Nguyen Manh Hung and Nguyen Van Quyen have provided. Their splendid new book covers equally well the older Hotelling-inspired theory of cake-eating and the economics of search and R&D designed to uncover new and cheaper sources of supply. It provides an entree to the whole subject of resource economics, as well as many new discoveries which will be of interest to experienced researchers.