"Nominal exchange rates in low-inflation advanced countries are nearly random walks. Engel and West (2003a) offer an explanation for this in the context of models in which the exchange rate is determined as the discounted sum of current and expected future fundamentals. Engel and West show that if the fundamentals are I(1), then as the discount factor approaches one, the exchange rate becomes indistinguishable from a random walk. An alternative explanation for the random-walk behavior of exchange rates is that there are some unobserved variables that drive exchange rates that follow near random walks. This paper takes the approach that both explanations are possible. We are able to measure how much of exchange-rate variation could be accounted for by the Engel-West explanation, despite the fact that we do not observe the information set of financial markets. We find that the observable fundamentals (money, income, prices, interest rates) may account for about 40 percent of the variance of changes in exchange rates under the assumption of discount factors near unity"--NBER website

An examination of the economic justification for foreign exchange market intervention, the potential for such intervention to stabilize an economy and the distinction between sterilized and non-sterilized intervention.

Today's world is organized politically into nation states with sovereign national governments. But as Ralph C. Bryant explains in Turbulent Waters, the world's economic structure is outgrowing its political structure. The economic links among nations have increased more rapidly than economic activity itself. As economic integration has proceeded, borders have become more porous, differences among national economies have eroded, and the policy autonomy of national governments has been undermined. Collective-governance problems increasingly spill across national borders and thus grow in importance relative to problems of domestic governance. The evolving need for international cooperation and cross-border collective governance is likely to be the single most prominent feature of world politics and economics for at least the next half century. The progressive integration of the world economy, often called "globalization," has been especially dramatic for financial activity. Cross-border financial transactions facilitate saving and investment and thereby advance the well-being of individuals. But they can also generate turbulence and instability. Most individuals are unsure whether financial globalization promotes or threatens prosperity for a majority of the world's people. Bryant explains basic concepts about financial activity and collective governance, distills their international dimensions, and enables general readers to acquire a solid grasp of the key policy issues that national governments must resolve. He provides fresh insights about what is often termed the international financial architecture. But he also casts his net far wider: the book's ambitious goal is no less than to outline a pragmatically sound vision for the evolution of international governance for the world economy and financial system.