The COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures have put severe strains on the economy. The economic policy response has been strong and generally appropriate, helping counter the negative effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, as the international borders remain shut, the economic contraction is likely to deepen in FY2021. A slow recovery is expected for FY2022 driven by a gradual border reopening. The FSM is facing significant medium-term uncertainty, owing to the possible expiration of grants and other assistance provided under the Compact Agreement with the United States. The FSM is also highly vulnerable to climate change-induced natural disasters.

This paper analyzes recent economic developments in the Federated States of Micronesia. Real GDP grew by a modest 1 percent in 1995, well below the average growth rate recorded during 1991–94, according to tentative estimates prepared by the IMF staff. The overall fiscal balance of the national government has registered surpluses for the past several years. Total revenue and grants have increased, mainly reflecting higher nontax revenue from fishing license fees from Korea and Taiwan, Province of China, and higher non-Compact grants.

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.

This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) highlights that the economy has performed well in recent years, with relatively high growth and low inflation. Fiscal and current account balances have recorded large surpluses since 2017, owing to the authorities’ decision to save revenue windfalls. Nonetheless, the FSM faces significant medium-term uncertainty as various economic supports under the Compact Agreement with the United States are set to expire in 2023. Unless they are renewed, the FSM is expected to lose access to Compact grants, giving rise to a fiscal cliff in 2023; banking sector oversight by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and post-disaster rehabilitation assistance. The country is highly vulnerable to climate change, while private sector activity remains anaemic. It is recommended to improve resilience to climate change by strengthening capacity to implement adaptation projects. Over the medium term, disaster risks should be mitigated by using disaster insurance and disaster-contingent foreign financing.

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Micronesian economy continued its gradual recovery in fiscal year 2016 (ending September 30), after three years of contraction during 2012–14. Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.0 percent in 2016, driven by increased construction activity related to infrastructure projects. Consumer prices remained broadly stable. The fiscal balance recorded an estimated surplus of 9 percent of GDP, after another year of strong revenues from fishing license fees. In 2017, growth is expected to moderate to 2 percent, as the recovery continues at a slower pace. Despite the recovery, risks are tilted to the downside beyond the near term.