Though linear projections of returns on the slope of the yield curve have contradicted the implications of the traditional expectations theory, ' we show that these findings are not puzzling relative to a large class of richer dynamic term structure models. Specifically, we are able to match all of the key empirical findings reported by Fama and Bliss and Campbell and Shiller, among others, within large subclasses of affine and quadratic-Gaussian term structure models. Additionally, we show that certain risk-premium adjusted' projections of changes in yields on the slope of the yield curve recover the coefficients of unity predicted by the models. Key to this matching are parameterizations of the market prices of risk that let the risk factors affect the market prices of risk directly, and not only through the factor volatilities. The risk premiums have a simple form consistent with Fama's findings on the predictability of forward rates, and are shown to also be consistent with interest rate, feedback rules used by a monetary authority in setting monetary policy

Though linear projections of returns on the slope of the yield curve have contradicted the implications of the traditional quot;expectations theory,quot; we show that these findings are not puzzling relative to a large class of richer dynamic terms structure models. Specifically, we are able to match all of the key empirical findings reported by Fama and Bliss and Campbell and Shiller, among others, within large subclasses of affine and quadractic-Gaussian term structure models. Key to this matching are parameterizations of the market prices of risk that let us separately quot;controlquot; the shape of the mean yield curve and the correlation structure of excess returns with the slope of the yield curve. The risk premiums have a simple form consistent with Fama's findings on the predictability of forward rates, and are shown to also be consistent with interest rate, feedback rules used by a monetary authority in setting monetary policy.

Though linear projections of returns on the slope of the yield curve have contradicted the implications of the traditional quot;expectations theory,quot; we show that these findings are not puzzling relative to a large class of richer dynamic term structure models. Specifically, we are able to match all of the key empirical findings reported by Fama and Bliss and Campbell and Shiller, among others, within large subclasses of affine and quadratic-Gaussian term structure models. Key to this matching are parameterizations of the market prices of risk that let us separately quot;controlquot; the shape of the mean yield curve and the correlation structure of excess returns with the slope of the yield curve. The risk premiums have a simple form consistent with Fama's findings on the predictability of forward rates, and are shown to also be consistent with interest rate, feedback rules used by a monetary authority in setting monetary policy.

Praise for Dynamic Term Structure Modeling "This book offers the most comprehensive coverage of term-structure models I have seen so far, encompassing equilibrium and no-arbitrage models in a new framework, along with the major solution techniques using trees, PDE methods, Fourier methods, and approximations. It is an essential reference for academics and practitioners alike." --Sanjiv Ranjan Das Professor of Finance, Santa Clara University, California, coeditor, Journal of Derivatives "Bravo! This is an exhaustive analysis of the yield curve dynamics. It is clear, pedagogically impressive, well presented, and to the point." --Nassim Nicholas Taleb author, Dynamic Hedging and The Black Swan "Nawalkha, Beliaeva, and Soto have put together a comprehensive, up-to-date textbook on modern dynamic term structure modeling. It is both accessible and rigorous and should be of tremendous interest to anyone who wants to learn about state-of-the-art fixed income modeling. It provides many numerical examples that will be valuable to readers interested in the practical implementations of these models." --Pierre Collin-Dufresne Associate Professor of Finance, UC Berkeley "The book provides a comprehensive description of the continuous time interest rate models. It serves an important part of the trilogy, useful for financial engineers to grasp the theoretical underpinnings and the practical implementation." --Thomas S. Y. Ho, PHD President, Thomas Ho Company, Ltd, coauthor, The Oxford Guide to Financial Modeling