The dramatic growth of international capital flow has provided unprecedented opportunities and risks in emerging markets. This book is the result of a conference exploring this phenomenon, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The issues explored include direct versus portfolio investment; exchange rates and economic growth; and optimal exchange rate policy for stabilizing inflation in developing countries. It concludes with a panel discussion on central bank coordination in the midst of exchange rate instability.

The interrelated issues analyzed in this book are as follows. With the integration of Europe, there are free movements in goods, services, short and long term capital, and direct investment. The German mark is the key currency in Europe and its value will affect the equilibrium bilateral exchange rates of the other currencies in the European Union. It is important to examine the following issues. What have been the fundamental determinants of the real value of the mark since the period of floating? What will be the effects of German integration upon exchange rates? How can we measure whether currencies are misaligned or if exchange rates are at their equilibrium values? Are short term capital flows destabilizing and, if so, should they be discouraged through a transactions tax? Under what conditions does the formation of a regional trading bloc help or hinder the liberalization of world trade? What are the determinants of foreign direct investment made by multinational enterprises? There is a unity to this book. The authors are senior scholars who approach the subject from the theoretical, policy oriented and econometric points of view. Jerome L. Stein Contents JAMES TOBIN A Currency Transactions Tax. Why and How CHARLES A. GOODHART Discussant to Professor J. Tobin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 JEROME L. STEIN and KARLHANS SAUERNHEIMER The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate of Germany 13 PETER B. CLARK Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 G. C. LIM A Note on Estimating Dynamic Economic Models of the Real Exchange Rate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.

Combining thorough scholarship with illuminating real-world examples, this edited collection provides insights on the causes and consequences of movements in both exchange rates and external assets and has a strong focus on the policy implications of operating in an open economy, particularly the choice of exchange rate and monetary policy, exchange rate intervention and policies on capital mobility.

Integrating transition economies into the global commercial and trade market system is a prolonged and risky process. This book is a collection of studies dealing with the different issues related to the liberalization of external relations in economies moving from a socialist to a market-based system The focus is on external sector developments, and the topics deal with balance of payments conditions, exchange rate policies and regimes, international competitiveness, international capital flows, trade, and other matters related to the integration of transition economies into the world economy. An understanding of the principles involved and of the experiences of both transition and advanced economies during this process is crucial to ensure its ultimate success. Written by internationally recognized scholars, the chapters cover these issues in a systematic manner. The first section treats current account developments, capital flows, and exchange rate policies in transition countries, the second section deals with specific issues related to international trade, and the final section consists of six specific country experiences. In this final section, a chapter dealing with the Russian Federation discusses the collapse of the ruble in August 1998.

"This is a very timely book that brings the reader to the forefront of current research on macroeconomic policy issues in economies subject to sizable capital flows".--Guillermo A. Calvo, University of Maryland.