The hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate has been rejected in many empirical studies. The rejection of this hypothesis could occur because market behavior is inconsistent with rational-expectations or because there exists a risk premium. Equations describing the forward premium and the change in the exchange rate are estimated jointly, and tests of both the rational-expectations and no-risk-premium hypotheses are conducted. Empirical estimates, obtained using quarterly data for the yen-dollar exchange rate, reject the rational-expectations hypothesis and suggest that there exists a time-varying risk premium.

This paper challenges the conventional view that foreign exchange risk premiums are small, not volatile, and unrelated to macroeconomic variables. For the Italian lira (1987-94), unconditional risk premiums—constructed using survey data to measure exchange rate expectations—are found to be sizable (relative to the dimension of the forward premium), highly volatile (relative to the variability of the forward bias), and predictable. Estimation of structural models of the risk premium suggests that anticipated fiscal contractions in Italy and lower uncertainty about the future path of fiscal policy are associated with a lower risk premium on lira-denominated assets.

One of the great challenges that many participants in foreign exchange (FX) markets face is sifting through the often overwhelming amount of information that is available. Media outlets stream updates on international politics, economics, and other factors that move FX prices twenty-four hours a day. It is difficult to work out what is and what is not important. This book helps its reader overcome these challenges by combining the insights gained from a market practitioner who has traded FX at Goldman Sachs, PIMCO, and Barclays Investment Bank, with textbook-level modern financial macroeconomic theory. The book covers macroeconomics relating to exchange rate determination. While you could obtain this information from a disparate set of sources―textbooks, academic literature, industry research notes, conversations with other market practitioners, and theories cited in media reports―this book brings all of these sources together to translate the information into concrete FX views that are firmly rooted in the macroeconomic theory of risk premiums, interest rates, and inflation, among other topics. The book promotes time consistent thought that avoids the daily temptation to jump from that day’s economic narrative to the next. Of particular interest to buy- and sell-side industry practitioners, finance and economics graduate students, academics, and others interested in FX markets, this book teaches its readers how to do this and improve their own trading and understanding of the FX markets.

Survey data on a broad cross section of 17 currencies are used to determine whether the forward discount moves primarily in response to changes in expectations of depreciation, or in the risk premium. We find that changes in expected depreciation are quantitatively significant. However we also find evidence, in contrast to earlier studies involving only four or five major currencies, that variation in the risk premium constitutes a large part of variation in the forward discount as well.

We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals; (ii) longer-term interest differentials also matter, especially for the Canadian $ and the Euro; (iii) oil price shocks play a particularly important role for the Canadian $ (an oil exporter); and (iv) risk appetite shocks (e.g., VIX shocks) generally lead to U.S. dollar appreciation. The importance of risk premium and longer-term interest differential shocks fit well with a simple theoretical model and are supported by recent event studies.