Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.

Encouragement by colleagues and a considerable increase in the use of prob abilistic analyses since the publication of the German edition in 1987 have motivated this English version. A mere translation was inappropriate because a number of important studies completed in recent years had to be included, among them the assessment of the risks of five nuclear power plants in the United States of America and the German Risk Study, Phase B. The opportunity was taken to elaborate on some concepts which have gained importance of late such as accident management. An update of international safety goals was also made; however, this can only be a momentary view of a field subjected to frequent change. Thanks are due to the Springer-Verlag for the careful editing and production of the book. Kaln, Garching Ulrich Hauptmanns March 1990 Wolfgang Werner Preface to the German Edition With the increasing use of complex technologies there is a growing need to evaluate the associated risks. The methodology of probabilistic safety and risk analysis allows predictive valuation of risks. Nuclear engineering has been in the forefront of the development and application of this method. In the Safety Study on US Power Plants published in 1975 the risk of an entire technology was investigated systematically and quantified for the first time. Meanwhile the methods have continuously been improved and applied to a number of nuclear power stations.