"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Abstract: The United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Theresa May's official request, on March 29th, to leave the European Union (EU) will change the way European countries organise their defence policies. Europeans have always managed their defence via various channels: nationally, in the EU, through NATO and in smaller formats. Brexit will change the way these formats function and how they interact. The effect on the EU's Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) will be limited. NATO might benefit from a greater UK commitment, as can smaller formats. The result will be greater fragmentation in European defence, which risks weakening the Europeans' political and military capacity to act. (author's abstract)

The European Union (EU) is a political and economic partnership that represents a unique form of cooperation among sovereign countries. The EU is the latest stage in a process of integration begun after World War II, initially by six Western European countries, to foster interdependence and make another war in Europe unthinkable. The EU currently consists of 28 member states, including most of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, and has helped to promote peace, stability, and economic prosperity throughout the European continent. The EU has been built through a series of binding treaties. Over the years, EU member states have sought to harmonize laws and adopt common policies on an increasing number of economic, social, and political issues. EU member states share a customs union; a single market in which capital, goods, services, and people move freely; a common trade policy; and a common agricultural policy. Nineteen EU member states use a common currency (the euro), and 22 member states participate in the Schengen area of free movement in which internal border controls have been eliminated. In addition, the EU has been developing a Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), which includes a Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP), and pursuing cooperation in the area of Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) to forge common internal security measures. Member states work together through several EU institutions to set policy and to promote their collective interests. In recent years, however, the EU has faced a number of internal and external crises. Most notably, in a June 2016 public referendum, voters in the United Kingdom (UK) backed leaving the EU. The pending British exit from the EU (dubbed "Brexit") comes amid multiple other challenges, including the rise of populist and to some extent anti-EU political parties, concerns about democratic backsliding in some member states (including Poland and Hungary), ongoing pressures related to migration, a heightened terrorism threat, and a resurgent Russia. The United States has supported the European integration project since its inception in the 1950s as a means to prevent another catastrophic conflict on the European continent and foster democratic allies and strong trading partners. Today, the United States and the EU have a dynamic political partnership and share a huge trade and investment relationship. Despite periodic tensions in U.S.-EU relations over the years, U.S. and EU policymakers alike have viewed the partnership as serving both sides' overall strategic and economic interests. EU leaders are anxious about the Trump Administration's commitment to the EU project, the transatlantic partnership, and an open international trading system-especially amid the Administration's imposition of tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products since 2018 and the prospects of future auto tariffs. In July 2018, President Trump reportedly called the EU a "foe" on trade but the Administration subsequently sought to de-escalate U.S.-EU tensions and signaled its intention to launch new U.S.-EU trade negotiations. Concerns also linger in Brussels about the implications of the Trump Administration's "America First" foreign policy and its positions on a range of international issues, including Russia, Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, climate change, and the role of multilateral institutions. This report serves as a primer on the EU. Despite the UK's vote to leave the EU, the UK remains a full member of the bloc until it officially exits the EU (which is scheduled to occur by October 31, 2019, but may be further delayed). As such, this report largely addresses the EU and its institutions as they currently exist. It also briefly describes U.S.-EU political and economic relations that may be of interest.

A contemporary and comprehensive analysis of national and supranational defence governance in an uncertain and increasingly dangerous world. This book will appeal to policymakers, analysts, graduate students and academics interested in defence economics, political economy, public economics and public policy.

This edition of Global Trends revolves around a core argument about how the changing nature of power is increasing stress both within countries and between countries, and bearing on vexing transnational issues. The main section lays out the key trends, explores their implications, and offers up three scenarios to help readers imagine how different choices and developments could play out in very different ways over the next several decades. Two annexes lay out more detail. The first lays out five-year forecasts for each region of the world. The second provides more context on the key global trends in train.

Rekindling the Strong State in Russia and China offers a thorough analysis of the profound regeneration of the State and its intense interaction with the external projections of Russia and China. In the international political scene, leaderships are under constant negotiation. Financial crisis, social and cultural transformations, values setting and migration flows have a deep impact on global powers, leading to the appearance of new actors. At present, the assumed rise of a new axis between two emerging powers, such as Russia and China, effaces their different backgrounds, leading to misinterpretations of their positioning in the geopolitical arena. This book is an essential and multifaceted guide aimed at understanding the deep changes that affect these two countries and their global aspirations. Contributors are: Marco Puleri; Andrea Passeri; Marco Balboni; Carmelo Danisi; Mingjiang Li; Mahalakshmi Ganapathy; Rosa Mulè; Olga Dubrovina; Evgeny Mironov; Yongshun Cai; Vasil Sakaev; Eugenia Baroncelli; Sonia Lucarelli; Nicolò Fasola; Stefano Bianchini; Stanislav Tkachenko; Vitaly Kozyrev; Marco Borraccetti; Francesco Privitera; Antonio Fiori, Massimiliano Trentin; Arrigo Pallotti; Giuliana Laschi; Michael Leigh.