This edited collection concerns nonlinear economic relations that involve time. It is divided into four broad themes that all reflect the work and methodology of Professor Timo Teräsvirta, one of the leading scholars in the field of nonlinear time series econometrics. The themes are: Testing for linearity and functional form, specification testing and estimation of nonlinear time series models in the form of smooth transition models, model selection and econometric methodology, and finally applications within the area of financial econometrics. All these research fields include contributions that represent state of the art in econometrics such as testing for neglected nonlinearity in neural network models, time-varying GARCH and smooth transition models, STAR models and common factors in volatility modeling, semi-automatic general to specific model selection for nonlinear dynamic models, high-dimensional data analysis for parametric and semi-parametric regression models with dependent data, commodity price modeling, financial analysts earnings forecasts based on asymmetric loss function, local Gaussian correlation and dependence for asymmetric return dependence, and the use of bootstrap aggregation to improve forecast accuracy. Each chapter represents original scholarly work, and reflects the intellectual impact that Timo Teräsvirta has had and will continue to have, on the profession.

In this commanding big-picture analysis of what went wrong in corporate America, Alex Berenson, a top financial investigative reporter for The New York Times, examines the common thread connecting Enron, Worldcom, Halliburton, Computer Associates, Tyco, and other recent corporate scandals: the cult of the number. Every three months, 14,000 publicly traded companies report sales and profits to their shareholders. Nothing is more important in these quarterly announcements than earnings per share, the lodestar that investors—and these days, that’s most of us—use to judge the health of corporate America. earnings per share is the number for which all other numbers are sacrificed. It is the distilled truth of a company’s health. Too bad it’s often a lie. The Number provides a comprehensive overview of how Wall Street and corporate America lost their way during the great bull market that began in 1982. With fresh insight, wit, and a broad historical perspective, Berenson puts the accounting fraud of the past three years in context, describing how decades of lax standards and shady practices contributed to our current economic troubles. As the bull market turned into a bubble, Wall Street became utterly focused on “the number,” companies’ quarterly earnings. Along the way, the market lost track of what companies are really supposed to do—build profitable businesses with sustainable futures. With their pay soaring, and increasingly tied to their companies’ shares, executives were more than happy to give Wall Street the predictable earnings reports it wanted, what-ever the reality of their businesses. Accountants, analysts, money managers, and individual investors played along, while the Securities and Exchange Commission found itself overwhelmed and underequipped to cope with the earnings game. The Number offers a unified vision of how today’s accounting scandals reflect a broader system failure. As long as investors remain too focused on the number, companies will find ways to manipulate it. Alex Berenson gives anyone who has ever invested in—or worked for—a public company the tools necessary to see beyond the cult of the number, understand accounting and its limits, and recognize patterns that can lead to fraud. After two decades of stock market hype, The Number offers a welcome dose of truth about the way Wall Street and corporate America really work.

Rather than relaxed and comfortable, Australians are disenchanted with politics and politicians. In Quarterly Essay 46 Laura Tingle shows that the reason for this goes to something deep in Australian culture: our great expectations of government. Since the deregulation era of the 1980s, Tingle finds, governments can do less, but we wish they could do more. From Hawke to Gillard, each prime minister has grappled with this dilemma. Keating sought to change expectations, Howard to feed a culture of entitlement, Rudd to reconceive the federation. Through all of this, and back to our origins, runs an almost childlike sense of the government as saviour and provider that has remained constant even as the world has changed. Now we are an angry nation, and the Age of Entitlement is coming to an end. What will a different politics look like? And, Tingle asks, even if a leader surfs the wave of anger all the way to power, what answer can be given to our great expectations? “It is wrong to see the anger of the last few years as a ‘one-off,’ which might go away at the next election. The things we are angry about betray the changes that have been taking place over recent decades. Politicians no longer control interest rates, the exchange rate, or wages, prices or industries that were once protected or even owned by government. Voters are confused about what politicians can do for them in such a world.” —Laura Tingle, Great Expectations

The third in a series of volumes published in honour of Professor Kenneth J. Arrow, each covering a different area of economic theory.

In the updated second edition of Don Chance’s well-received Essays in Derivatives, the author once again keeps derivatives simple enough for the beginner, but offers enough in-depth information to satisfy even the most experienced investor. This book provides up-to-date and detailed coverage of various financial products related to derivatives and contains completely new chapters covering subjects that include why derivatives are used, forward and futures pricing, operational risk, and best practices.

These essays, though formally independent, nevertheless constitute a whole, each one preparing the way for the succeeding chapter.