This dissertation investigates two essential features of the US economy. First, it explores how news about future productivity changes business cycle fluctuations. Using the a representative agent model, it shows that implementation labor in workplace organization could be an important channel through which news about the fundamentals can realistically generate US business cycle fluctuations. Further this idea is extended using the perspective of sunspot fluctuations. In particular, the model can lead to multiple equilibria under specific parameterizations. Second, a general equilibrium model has been developed with heterogeneous agents to explain the wage polarization feature of the US labor market, particularly how the price of an important technology is connected to lifetime earnings of agents and affects their college decisions. The following summarizes the three chapters of my dissertation. The first chapter which I co-authored with Dr. Blankenau, argues that purchasing investment goods does not directly increase the productive capacity of a business. Changes in the business through the installation of capital, worker training, and workplace reorganization are often required. These changes themselves are not easily automated. Change requires workers. We build a model where investment requires a complementary labor input. This mechanism is embedded in a representative agent model with capacity utilization, adjustment costs, and separable preferences. We show that this environment can yield positive co-movement between consumption, investment, and labor hours when the economy experiences a news shock about future productivity, thus providing an additional channel through which news shocks can generate key business cycle features. The second chapter is an extension of the first chapter. I investigate the indeterminacy in a representative agent model with implementation labor and increasing returns in production. First, my analysis shows that a representative agent with implementation labor can exhibit increasing returns to scale. Then I show that self-fulfilling beliefs of agents lead to business cycle fluctuations in which multiple equilibria can arise under specific parameterizations. Specifically, implementation labor in the production of capital is the highly important, necessary condition for the self-fulling equilibrium outcome. The third chapter, which is also a joint work with Dr. Blankenau, discusses the wage polarization feature of the US labor market. We build a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, showing how wage polarization can emerge when the price of computer capital falls. Consequently, we find the share of the population with a college degree decreases. Our findings are consistent with recent empirical data that show a U-shaped wage growth pattern in the US as well as a slower growth rate of college-educated workers despite the high returns of investing in education. In the model, we assume that each agent is born with a portfolio of skills. Specifically, each agent can provide manual labor, routine labor, and abstract labor and must decide how much of each to provide. An agent can increase efficiency in all types of labor by attending college. All three types of labor are valued in the labor market at an endogenously determined wage rate. Computer capital is a substitute for routine labor. As its price falls and its quantity increases, agents with a relative aptitude for routine labor no longer find it advantageous to attend college. Since routinization of tasks harms middle-income agents, the model has government policy implications for observed wage polarization.

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

This volume seeks to go beyond the microeconomic view of wages as a cost having negative consequences on a given firm, to consider the positive macroeconomic dynamics associated with wages as a major component of aggregate demand.

This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.

Praise for previous editions of The State of Working America: "The State of Working America remains unrivaled as the most-trusted source for a comprehensive understanding of how working Americans and their families are faring in today's economy."--Robert B. Reich"It is the inequality of wealth, argue the authors, rather than new technology (as some would have it), that is responsible for the failure of America's workplace to keep pace with the country's economic growth. The State of Working America is a well-written, soundly argued, and important reference book."--Library Journal "If you want to know what happened to the economic well-being of the average American in the past decade or so, this is the book for you. It should be required reading for Americans of all political persuasions."--Richard Freeman, Harvard University "A truly comprehensive and useful book that provides a reality check on loose statements about U.S. labor markets. It should be cheered by all Americans who earn their living from work."--William Wolman, former chief economist, CNBC's Business Week "The State of Working America provides very valuable factual and analytic material on the economic conditions of American workers. It is the very best source of information on this important subject."--Ray Marshall, University of Texas, former U.S. Secretary of Labor"An indispensable work . . . on family income, wages, taxes, employment, and the distribution of wealth."--Simon Head, The New York Review of Books "No matter what political camp you're in, this is the single most valuable book I know of about the state of America, period. It is the most referenced, most influential resource book of its kind."--Jeff Madrick, author, The End of Affluence "This book is the single best yardstick for measuring whether or not our economic policies are doing enough to ensure that our economy can, once again, grow for everybody."--Richard A. Gephardt "The best place to review the latest developments in changes in the distribution of income and wealth."--Lester ThurowThe State of Working America, prepared biennially since 1988 by the Economic Policy Institute, includes a wide variety of data on family incomes, wages, taxes, unemployment, wealth, and poverty-data that enable the authors to closely examine the effect of the economy on the living standards of the American people.

A sobering account of a disenfranchised American working class and important policy solutions to the nation’s economic inequalities One of the country’s leading scholars on economics and social policy, Isabel Sawhill addresses the enormous divisions in American society—economic, cultural, and political—and what might be done to bridge them. Widening inequality and the loss of jobs to trade and technology has left a significant portion of the American workforce disenfranchised and skeptical of governments and corporations alike. And yet both have a role to play in improving the country for all. Sawhill argues for a policy agenda based on mainstream values, such as family, education, and work. While many have lost faith in government programs designed to help them, there are still trusted institutions on both the local and federal level that can deliver better job opportunities and higher wages to those who have been left behind. At the same time, the private sector needs to reexamine how it trains and rewards employees. This book provides a clear-headed and middle-way path to a better-functioning society in which personal responsibility is honored and inclusive capitalism and more broadly shared growth are once more the norm.

Bill Gates's Five Books for Summer Reading 2019 From world-renowned economist Paul Collier, a candid diagnosis of the failures of capitalism and a pragmatic and realistic vision for how we can repair it. Deep new rifts are tearing apart the fabric of the United States and other Western societies: thriving cities versus rural counties, the highly skilled elite versus the less educated, wealthy versus developing countries. As these divides deepen, we have lost the sense of ethical obligation to others that was crucial to the rise of post-war social democracy. So far these rifts have been answered only by the revivalist ideologies of populism and socialism, leading to the seismic upheavals of Trump, Brexit, and the return of the far-right in Germany. We have heard many critiques of capitalism but no one has laid out a realistic way to fix it, until now. In a passionate and polemical book, celebrated economist Paul Collier outlines brilliantly original and ethical ways of healing these rifts—economic, social and cultural—with the cool head of pragmatism, rather than the fervor of ideological revivalism. He reveals how he has personally lived across these three divides, moving from working-class Sheffield to hyper-competitive Oxford, and working between Britain and Africa, and acknowledges some of the failings of his profession. Drawing on his own solutions as well as ideas from some of the world’s most distinguished social scientists, he shows us how to save capitalism from itself—and free ourselves from the intellectual baggage of the twentieth century.