We present a framework to derive the probability of default implied by the price of equity options. The framework does not require any strong statistical assumption, and provide results that are informative on the expected developments of balance sheet variables, such as assets, equity and leverage, and on the Greek letters (delta, gamma and vega). We show how to extend the framework by using information from the price of a zero-coupon bond and CDS-spreads. In the episode of the collapse of Bear Stearns, option-iPoD was able to early signal market sentiment.

Timo Schläfer exploits the fact that differently-ranking debt instruments of the same issuer face identical default risk but different default-conditional recovery rates. He shows that this allows isolating recovery risk without any of the rigid assumptions employed by priors and implements his approach using credit default swap data.

Quantitative models are omnipresent –but often controversially discussed– in todays risk management practice. New regulations, innovative financial products, and advances in valuation techniques provide a continuous flow of challenging problems for financial engineers and risk managers alike. Designing a sound stochastic model requires finding a careful balance between parsimonious model assumptions, mathematical viability, and interpretability of the output. Moreover, data requirements and the end-user training are to be considered as well. The KPMG Center of Excellence in Risk Management conference Risk Management Reloaded and this proceedings volume contribute to bridging the gap between academia –providing methodological advances– and practice –having a firm understanding of the economic conditions in which a given model is used. Discussed fields of application range from asset management, credit risk, and energy to risk management issues in insurance. Methodologically, dependence modeling, multiple-curve interest rate-models, and model risk are addressed. Finally, regulatory developments and possible limits of mathematical modeling are discussed.

Along with the extraordinary growth in the derivatives market over the last decade, the impact of model choice, and model parameter usage, has become a major source of valuation uncertainty. This book concentrates on equity derivatives and charts, step by step, how key assumptions on the dynamics of stocks impact on the value of exotics. The presentation is technical, but maintains a strong focus on intuition and practical application./a

This book introduces the “strike of default” (SOD) benchmark concept. The author determines the SOD through cross-sectional pricing between the credit market and the option market, considering the same underlying. The idea of the SOD is to combine the implied probability of default from both markets to get a time-depending share price, at which the markets believe the underlying will default. By means of credit default swaps (CDS) and option pricing methods, the SOD is determined for any exchange-listed company, where option and CDS market data are available.

The IMF has had extensive involvement in the stress testing of financial systems in its member countries. This book presents the methods and models that have been developed by IMF staff over the years and that can be applied to the gamut of financial systems. An added resource for readers is the companion CD-Rom, which makes available the toolkit with some of the models presented in the book (also located at elibrary.imf.org/page/stress-test-toolkit).