A coordinated action by East Asian countries to stabilize their currencies against a common basket of major currencies (broadly representative of their average structure of trade and foreign direct investment) would help stabilize both intra-regional exchange rates and effective exchange rates - in a way consistent with the medium-term objective of promoting trade, investment, and growth in the region. After discussing major conceptual and empirical issues relevant to the exchange rate policies of East Asian countries, Kawai and Takagi propose a regional exchange rate arrangement designed to promote intraregional exchange rate stability and regional economic growth. They argue that:For developing countries, exchange rate volatility tends to significantly hurt trade and investment, making it inadvisable to adopt a system of freely floating exchange rates.Given the high share of intraregional trade and the similarity of trade composition in East Asia, exchange rate policy should be directed toward maintaining intraregional exchange rate stability, to promote trade, investment, and economic growth.The current policy of maintaining exchange rate stability against the U.S. dollar as an informal, uncoordinated mechanism for ensuring intraregional exchange rate stability is suboptimal. A pragmatic policy option - conducive to a more robust framework for cooperation in monetary and exchange rate policy - would be a coordinated action to shift the target of nominal exchange rate stability to a basket of tripolar currencies (the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, and the euro). This alternative would better reflect the region's diverse structure of trade and foreign direct investment.The authors envision no rigid peg. Instead, at least initially, each country could choose its own formal exchange rate arrangement - be it a currency board, a crawling peg, or a basket peg with wide margins. At times of crisis, the peg might be temporarily suspended, subject to the rule that the exchange rate would be restored to the original level as soon as practical. Only in extreme circumstances would the level be adjusted to reflect new equilibrium conditions.This paper - a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, East Asia and Pacific Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to study financial market development, capital flows, and exchange rate arrangements in East Asia.

This book is based upon the author’s study, and thesis submitted at Thomas Jefferson School of law. The intent of the study or research was to test or verify the author’s hypothesis, thus “unstable currencies equals an unstable country” by understudying currencies in top ten countries and bottom ten countries ranked in the 2016 World Prosperity Index and Fragile States Index 2016; to determine whether there is a co-relationship between stable or unstable currencies and a country’s prosperity or failure/ misery. ‘The Value of Offshore Banking to the Global Financial System’; ‘Inflation Targeting, why the value of money matters to you’, and ‘Exchange Traded Funds’ are the author’s previous books. Thanks for your patronage.

The open access publication of this book has been published with the support of the Swiss National Science Foundation. In Monetary Stability as a Common Concern in International Law, Lucía Satragno argues that monetary stability is a global public good that must be promoted and protected at all levels of governance. In doing so, the book accomplishes two tasks. On one hand, it provides an up to date analysis of the role of law and institutions in the international monetary field since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. On the other hand, it applies the methodological approach proposed by the novel doctrine of Common Concern of Humankind to monetary stability as a case study. Accordingly, the book examines not only the status quo of the international monetary system, but also looks at the ‘new and different realism’ that would be envisaged in monetary affairs in the case of a fully-fledged principle of Common Concern.

We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.

This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.

Master's Thesis from the year 2018 in the subject Economics - International Economic Relations, grade: A, National University of Ireland, Maynooth (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting), course: MSc Economic and Financial Risk Analysis, language: English, abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to examine the effect of real exchange rate volatility between the Canadian and US dollars on real exports from Canada to US. The study uses quarterly data from 1960-2017. The GARCH (1, 1) is used to model exchange rate volatility. After finding the variables are non-stationary with no co-integration, a VAR (Vector Auto regression) model is used to investigate the short-run relationship in the variables using Granger causality, impulse response functions and variance decomposition estimates. The results reveal that the effect of exchange rate volatility is of mixed signs with coefficients that are not statistically significant. The thesis is divided into 7 chapters; chapter 2 gives an overview of important literature and contributions by researchers over the years specifically covering the relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade, exchange rate regimes, exchange rate target zones and inflation targeting. Chapter 3 presents the model and data used, definitions of the variables and the predictions of the model. Chapter 4 gives a theoretical and econometric overview of the unit root and co-integration tests. Chapter 5 gives the data output of the empirical results and discussions of test results. This output is presented using graphs and tables. Chapter 6 is a presentation of the limitations of the model and possible areas of improvement. Lastly, chapter 7 concludes and gives policy recommendations moving forward. Exchange rates are a key player in any economy that is engaging in international trade. A stable monetary policy system and financial sector play a key role in ensuring the exchange rate stability of the currency of a country. Firms and traders rely on prevailing exchange rates to forecast amounts to produce, import and export; thus are very much affected by the exchange rate volatility. In addition to this, there is a currency conversion cost in international trade. Traders use a number of products in financial markets to hedge against currency fluctuations; these include among others forwards contracts. This is especially true for short-term hedging than long-term hedging.

This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries