Ethiopian economy has grown at an average rate that surpasses that of almost any other economy in the region over the last two decades. At the center of this development is the high priority placed on accelerating agricultural growth and achieving food security and poverty alleviation. Over the years, maize has become a main food security crop, widely produced and consumed by smallholder farmers, second only to teff in terms of area. Despite the sustained growth of maize production over the years, its yields continue to be lower than the world’s average. Of the many abiotic and biotic constraints that maize faces, insect attacks and droughts are two critical ones. The genetically modified TELA maize can help address these constraints. This paper estimates the economic benefits of adopting this new technology and the opportunity cost that Ethiopia will incur if its adoption is delayed. The analysis is conducted using an economic surplus partial equilibrium model run with the newly developed DREAMpy software, data drawn from the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey, Wave 3 2015-2016, econometric estimations using these survey data, and other local data and sources. The estimations show that if the drought tolerant and insect resistant TELA maize is planted in 2023 the net present-value of benefits for producers and consumers would be around $850 million. Producers from the mid-altitude maize zone will be the main beneficiaries, given the targeted area of TELA maize. Consumers from all areas will benefit from the projected reduction in price. If the adoption of this new technology is delayed by 5 years, the estimated net present value of benefits will fall by 30 percent. These costs underscore the importance of having a regulatory system that is efficient, predictable, and transparent and ensures that the projected economic benefits are realized.

This landmark volume presents the results of a comprehensive and coherent in-depth assessment of Ethiopian agriculture and draws lessons from it to generate actionable recommendations that will inform policy decisions and priority setting for agricultural transformation across Africa. Policy makers in Africa are faced with the challenges of ensuring food and nutrition security and the economic wellbeing of their rapidly growing populations while at the same time maintaining the integrity of their natural resource base. Between 2000 and 2021, 74% of the growth in overall crop production on the continent was derived from increases in land area expansion, while increases in yield contributed only 26% of the growth. This unchecked expansion of land use puts the sustainability of the natural resource base under severe pressure. This book draws on a unique set of case studies from Ethiopia described and told from a truly African perspective.

The Nile provides freshwater not only for domestic and industrial use, but also for irrigated agriculture, hydropower dams and the vast fisheries resource of the lakes of Central Africa. The Nile River Basin covers the whole Nile Basin and is based on the results of three major research projects supported by the Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF). It provides unique and up-to-date insights on agriculture, water resources, governance, poverty, productivity, upstream-downstream linkages, innovations, future plans and their implications. Specifically, the book elaborates the history and the major current and future challenges and opportunities of the Nile river basin. It analyzes the basin characteristics using statistical data and modern tools such as remote sensing and geographic information systems. Population distribution, poverty and vulnerability linked to production system and water access are assessed at the international basin scale, and the hydrology of the region is also analysed. This text provides in-depth scientific model adaptation results for hydrology, sediments, benefit sharing, and payment for environmental services based on detailed scientific and experimental work of the Blue Nile Basin. Production systems as they relate to crops, livestock, fisheries and wetlands are analyzed for the whole Blue and White Nile basin including their constraints. Policy, institutional and technological interventions that increase productivity of agriculture and use of water are also assessed. Water demand modeling, scenario analysis, and tradeoffs that inform future plans and opportunities are included to provide a unique, comprehensive coverage of the subject.