Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.

Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.

Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.

In a world shaped by the forces of nature, humankind has always sought to understand and mitigate the impacts of natural hazards. Natural Hazards - New Insights delves into the intricate realm of floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, meteoritical hazards, mining-related disasters, and other major catastrophes that afflict our planet. This book takes readers on a journey to gain a deeper understanding of these phenomena, unearthing fresh insights into their causes, impacts, and strategies to mitigate their effects. Organized into six comprehensive sections, this book begins with a global perspective on natural hazards, laying the foundation for understanding the diverse range of challenges they pose. It then explores seismic hazards, analyzing earthquake patterns, urban damage assessment, fault reactivation, and more. Shifting the focus to flooding as a natural hazard, the book examines hydrological extremes, flood mapping, and risk reduction strategies. It further explores climatological hazards, including the intricate relationship between climate change and natural disasters, remote sensing technologies, and the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Landslides are also scrutinized as significant natural hazards, with chapters on polarization analysis, landslide assessment, hazard zonation, and the impact of underground coal mining methods on slope stability. Lastly, the book addresses the social challenges that arise when disasters strike, examining psychological reactions, spontaneous volunteers, urban planning responses, and social vulnerability to earthquake hazards. Through peer-reviewed chapters, this book offers valuable insights and expertise from renowned authors in the field. Their contributions have shaped this comprehensive exploration, which aims to navigate the challenges, minimize risks, and build a safer and more sustainable environment for future generations.

Despite the evident advantages that being prepared for natural life-threatening events confers on people and communities, research has consistently found that individual, community, and business preparedness levels are low. This book examines why this is so and identifies what can be done to expedite the development of sustained preparedness, at household, community, and societal levels. The text emphasizes the need for this aspect of social risk management to be based on engagement principles: how people engage with their natural environment, how they engage with each other, and how people and agencies and businesses engage with each other. Following a discussion of how people relate to the environmental hazards they need to prepare for, the book introduces the areas of comprehensive preparedness. Major topics include: Coexisting with a Hazardous Environment; People, Hazards, and Hazard Mitigation; Hazard Readiness and Preparedness; People’s Beliefs and Hazard Preparedness; Predicting Hazard Preparedness and Social Cognitive Influences; Social Influences on Hazard Beliefs; Hazard Preparedness and Community Engagement and Empowerment; Cross-cultural Perspectives; Business Preparedness; and Future Issues with Engaging People, Science, and Practice. This unique text will provide practitioners and academics with a comprehensive account of what can currently be done to increase the capacity of people, communities, societies, and businesses to anticipate what hazard consequences they may have to contend with, cope with, adapt to, and recover from, and also to learn from experiences in ways that contribute to the development of future societal resilience and adaptive capacity.