Estimates were developed of the potential for rail-service termination and on the probable transport-related effects that such loss of service would have on: freight transport system; transport costs of affected rail users; resulting public-sector and private-sector investment requirements; and energy consumption. A survey was conducted of users of four sets of rail lines that had either recently lost service or could lose service in the future. Estimates of the overall effects of abandonment were developed by a computer program from an analysis of survey responses and from waybill data for shipments originating or terminating on the four sets of lines. All results are presented for these four sets of lines, and separately for sixteen commodity groups and for seven regions.

This Bureau of Mines study is intended to identify and evaluate potential effects of impending large-scale U.S. rail line closings (abandonment) on domestic nonfuel mineral industries. This is the first nationwide study of rail abandonment impacts focused on non-fuel minerals. The analysis presented is based principally on a survey of 200 rail freight records and on statistical tests that correlated 2,000 points in the Bureau's Mineral Industry Location System (MILS) with 700 prospective abandonments throughout the United States. The conclusions derived from the analysis can be useful in evaluating proposed national rail abandonment policy and legislation regarding non fuel mineral shipping. Among these conclusions are the following: (1) Certain mineral materials (especially fertilizers) are likely to account for a large percentage of the rail traffic affected by abandonment in the next few years, but the total tonnage involved will be small; (2) abandonment will adversely affect some mineral shippers, particularly local short haulers; and (3) abandonment could significantly reduce the opportunity to develop new resources or reopen defunct mining facilities. Despite these problems, however, the data examined in this study do not indicate that current abandonment trends will cause widespread disruption of domestic non fuel mineral shipping. (Out of print.).