MSC 2000: 46L10, 46L53

This volume contains lectures given at the Saint-Flour Summer School of Probability Theory during 17th Aug. - 3rd Sept. 1998. The contents of the three courses are the following: - Continuous martingales on differential manifolds. - Topics in non-parametric statistics. - Free probability theory. The reader is expected to have a graduate level in probability theory and statistics. This book is of interest to PhD students in probability and statistics or operators theory as well as for researchers in all these fields. The series of lecture notes from the Saint-Flour Probability Summer School can be considered as an encyclopedia of probability theory and related fields.

The First Detailed Account of Statistical Analysis That Treats Models as Approximations The idea of truth plays a role in both Bayesian and frequentist statistics. The Bayesian concept of coherence is based on the fact that two different models or parameter values cannot both be true. Frequentist statistics is formulated as the problem of estimating the "true but unknown" parameter value that generated the data. Forgoing any concept of truth, Data Analysis and Approximate Models: Model Choice, Location-Scale, Analysis of Variance, Nonparametric Regression and Image Analysis presents statistical analysis/inference based on approximate models. Developed by the author, this approach consistently treats models as approximations to data, not to some underlying truth. The author develops a concept of approximation for probability models with applications to: Discrete data Location scale Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Nonparametric regression, image analysis, and densities Time series Model choice The book first highlights problems with concepts such as likelihood and efficiency and covers the definition of approximation and its consequences. A chapter on discrete data then presents the total variation metric as well as the Kullback–Leibler and chi-squared discrepancies as measures of fit. After focusing on outliers, the book discusses the location-scale problem, including approximation intervals, and gives a new treatment of higher-way ANOVA. The next several chapters describe novel procedures of nonparametric regression based on approximation. The final chapter assesses a range of statistical topics, from the likelihood principle to asymptotics and model choice.

Probability theory is based on the notion of independence. The celebrated law of large numbers and the central limit theorem describe the asymptotics of the sum of independent variables. However, there are many models of strongly correlated random variables: for instance, the eigenvalues of random matrices or the tiles in random tilings. Classical tools of probability theory are useless to study such models. These lecture notes describe a general strategy to study the fluctuations of strongly interacting random variables. This strategy is based on the asymptotic analysis of Dyson-Schwinger (or loop) equations: the author will show how these equations are derived, how to obtain the concentration of measure estimates required to study these equations asymptotically, and how to deduce from this analysis the global fluctuations of the model. The author will apply this strategy in different settings: eigenvalues of random matrices, matrix models with one or several cuts, random tilings, and several matrices models.

In 2003 the XIV International Congress on Mathematical Physics (ICMP) was held in Lisbon with more than 500 participants. Twelve plenary talks were given in various fields of Mathematical Physics: E Carlen «On the relation between the Master equation and the Boltzmann Equation in Kinetic Theory»; A Chenciner «Symmetries and “simple” solutions of the classical n-body problem»; M J Esteban «Relativistic models in atomic and molecular physics»; K Fredenhagen «Locally covariant quantum field theory»; K Gawedzki «Simple models of turbulent transport»; I Krichever «Algebraic versus Liouville integrability of the soliton systems»; R V Moody «Long-range order and diffraction in mathematical quasicrystals»; S Smirnov «Critical percolation and conformal invariance»; J P Solovej «The energy of charged matter»; V Schomerus «Strings through the microscope»; C Villani «Entropy production and convergence to equilibrium for the Boltzmann equation»; D Voiculescu «Aspects of free probability».The book collects as well carefully selected invited Session Talks in: Dynamical Systems, Integrable Systems and Random Matrix Theory, Condensed Matter Physics, Equilibrium Statistical Mechanics, Quantum Field Theory, Operator Algebras and Quantum Information, String and M Theory, Fluid Dynamics and Nonlinear PDE, General Relativity, Nonequilibrium Statistical Mechanics, Quantum Mechanics and Spectral Theory, Path Integrals and Stochastic Analysis.

This volume contains lectures given at the Saint-Flour Summer School of Probability Theory during 17th Aug. - 3rd Sept. 1998. The contents of the three courses are the following: - Continuous martingales on differential manifolds. - Topics in non-parametric statistics. - Free probability theory. The reader is expected to have a graduate level in probability theory and statistics. This book is of interest to PhD students in probability and statistics or operators theory as well as for researchers in all these fields. The series of lecture notes from the Saint-Flour Probability Summer School can be considered as an encyclopedia of probability theory and related fields.