Complex projects are often the most high-profile projects within an organization. How can early warning signs be identified and acted upon, so that problems are avoided and projects are successful in delivering the expected value for their owners and other stakeholders? What signals should we look for? Looking for early warning signs takes more than a keen eye. Collaborating with the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim and the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom, Ole Jonny Klakegg, Terry Williams, Derek Walker, Bj&ørn Andersen, and Ole Morten Magnussen have expanded on their research of governance frameworks and guidelines as well as provided interviews with experts and case studies from Australia, Norway, and the United Kingdom. This international report identifies early warning signs in highly complex projects and offers tips on how to combat them.

This paper considers how project assessments may be used to identify early warning signs in projects, and how complexity influences it. This study confirms the main findings in earlier literature and gives an overview of current documented practice. Then comprehensive empirical research is performed to expand this. Results show that project professionals are not very good at detecting early warning signs and even less good at acting on them. Barriers that lead to this are identified. Identifying and acting on early warning signs is particularly important in the initiation or set-up phase of the project, but also relevant in later phases, including execution. The nature of early warning signs and the way these can be detected change over time and with the evolving situation. We see that project assessments, typically performed as part of gateways, are useful in identifying early warnings connected to the documentation and formalities of the project. As the complexity increases, the assessments have more limited use, and the project is increasingly dependent on detecting early warning signs by informal "gut-feel" approaches. This indicates the increased importance of knowledge, experience, and communication skills in complex situations. The paper concludes with a list of early warning signs.

University level text. Some complex problems simply do not have "solutions." The key to being an effective leader is being able to recognize and manage such problems. Polarity Management presents a unique model and set of principles that will challenge you to look at situations in new ways. Also included are exercises to strengthen your skills, and case studies to help you begin applying the model to your own unsolvable problems.

Since the dawn of medical science, people have recognized connections between a change in the weather and the appearance of epidemic disease. With today's technology, some hope that it will be possible to build models for predicting the emergence and spread of many infectious diseases based on climate and weather forecasts. However, separating the effects of climate from other effects presents a tremendous scientific challenge. Can we use climate and weather forecasts to predict infectious disease outbreaks? Can the field of public health advance from "surveillance and response" to "prediction and prevention?" And perhaps the most important question of all: Can we predict how global warming will affect the emergence and transmission of infectious disease agents around the world? Under the Weather evaluates our current understanding of the linkages among climate, ecosystems, and infectious disease; it then goes a step further and outlines the research needed to improve our understanding of these linkages. The book also examines the potential for using climate forecasts and ecological observations to help predict infectious disease outbreaks, identifies the necessary components for an epidemic early warning system, and reviews lessons learned from the use of climate forecasts in other realms of human activity.

Initial priorities for U.S. participation in the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, declared by the United Nations, are contained in this volume. It focuses on seven issues: hazard and risk assessment; awareness and education; mitigation; preparedness for emergency response; recovery and reconstruction; prediction and warning; learning from disasters; and U.S. participation internationally. The committee presents its philosophy of calls for broad public and private participation to reduce the toll of disasters.

Managing the Unknown offers a new way of looking at the problem of managing projects in novel and unknown environments. From Europe's leading business school, this book shows how to manage two fundamental approaches that, in combination, offer the possibility of coping with unforeseen influences that inevitably arise in novel projects: * Trial-and-Error Learning allows for redefining the plan and the project as the project unfolds * Selectionism pursues multiple, independent trials in order to pick the best one at the end Managing the Unknown offers expert guidelines to the specific project mindsets, infrastructures, and management methods required to use these project management approaches and achieve success in spite of unforeseen obstacles. This book equips readers with: * Causal explanations of why unforeseeable factors in novel projects make traditional project planning and project risk management insufficient * Directly applicable management tools that help managers to guide novel and high-uncertainty projects * Real-world case studies of both successful and unsuccessful approaches to managing high uncertainty in novel projects

Experiences from all around the world show that citizens increasingly articulate their discontent with large-scale projects. Still, public debates often leave politics, administrations, corporations and citizens unsatisfied. How can we improve mutual understanding, provide political legitimacy and facilitate economic efficiency? This book pinpoints the opportunities and challenges of participatory modes of governance by offering theoretical accounts and analyses of large-scale projects focusing on infrastructure, communication and public administration. With contributions by: Marko Bachl, Henning Banthien, Sarah Bastgen, Daniela Ciaffi, Christopher Gohl, Andreas Hoffelder, Kjetil Holgeid, Mathias Konig, Wolfgang Konig, Thamy Pogrebinschi, Martina Richwien, Claudia Ritzi, Andrea Rommele, Fabiano Santos, Emanuela Saporito, Stefan Schaible, Henrik Schober, Gunnar Folke Schuppert, Carmen Sirianni, Arne Spieker, Johannes Staemmler, Mark Thompson, Andrea Versteyl, Paul Webb, Katrin Winkler.